Wednesday 25 November 2015
Australia Lower GDP projections Related to Population Growth Slows
Australia Treasury lowered its estimate of economic potential growth rate, related to weaker population growth and decline in hours worked in the economy that are tailored to the end of the rising commodity prices.
- The potential level of the economy will be about 2.75 per cent over the next few years, down from 3 percent estimated at the time of the budget, as stated Nigel Ray, deputy secretary of the Treasury is responsible for macro-economic groups, in a speech in Sydney on Tuesday (24 / 11).
- This figure is projected to fall further, reaching 2.5 percent in 2050, related to the age of the population, he said.
- Australia's population growth has slowed as the economic slowdown that has reduced the attractiveness of the country for migrants.
- The central bank has cut interest rates to a record low 2 percent to help cope with the mining boom for a decade and support consumption as wage growth slows.
- The International Monetary Fund warned in June that the Australian economy could fall from above 3 percent to 2.5 percent.
- Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury have also been demonstrated in recent months that the rate of potential growth likely to be lower.
- Australian working-age population growth slowed to 1.5 percent during the year to June 2015, lower than the budget assumption of 1.75 percent, and "far below the average annual growth over the last 10 years," said Ray.
- Treasury will complete economic forecasts and budget mid-year after the release of third-quarter gross domestic product next week, said Ray.
Certainty Declining Economic Growth Germany
Based on recent data from the Federal Statistical Office Germany-Destatis, Germany's economic growth declined in the third quarter of 2015 based on GDP data that period.
- Slowing economic growth in the European region of this great country has been predicted earlier is due to the decline in investment and exports in the period.
- German GDP in the third quarter that ended in September experienced growth of 0.3 percent, lower than the previous quarter GDP at 0.4 percent position that ended in June.
- Although there was an increase in household spending and government but can not compensate for the decline in investment and exports.
- Germany GDP Growth Rate Quarterly private consumption grew by 0.6 percent, compared with 0.1 percent growth in the previous quarter. Private consumption also rose 1.3 percent, accelerating from 0.7 percent growth in the previous quarter.
- The decline in investment occurred in the machinery manufacturing industry slumped 0.8%, construction sector investment also shrank 0.3 percent.
- For exports, though increased 0.2 percent, but still less than the increase in exports of the previous quarter growth of 1.8 percent.
- In addition imports rose 1.1 percent, the natural increase of a 0.5 percent rise in the previous period.
European exchanges Melorot Lowest week, Much Pressure; Anything
- Zodiac Aerospace share prices observed plunged nearly 10 percent after the company supplier of aerospace business posted annual revenue decrease to 44.6 percent.
- While Kingfisher seen slipping 3 percent of corporate data is reported to house retail development off target projection of 6.6 percent, Reuters reported today (24/11).
- Meanwhile, CNBC reported, issued a travel alert warning (travel alert) for the US people, indicate a terrorist threat.
- Belgium to this day is still closed for normal activities on day four as it continues to hunt down one of the key players, One Abdeslam, the assault Paris 11 days ago.
- Analyst Research Vibiz see that the pressure will continue to haunt the stock markets European region.
- In addition to the issue of the issuer's financial statements were disappointing and still volatility in regional economic policy, commodity price pressures and the threat of terror will continue to provide bearish market conditions.
- The rebound will occur in the short term where when there are gusts of strong positive sentiment on Wall Street and Asia. The rest, for this period, the European market is still likely to many threats of pressure.
China's Most Investment Boros Reduce Carbon Emissions
- Among the countries of the world who spend a lot of funds for investment reduction of greenhouse effect by reducing carbon emissions, China became the most widely issued state budget for these investments, according to a report Climatescope 2015.
- The report, sponsored by the UK Department for International Development and the US Agency for International Development surveyed 55 countries that has invested the government budget for the climatic conditions of the country are healthy and free of carbon emissions.
- China has invested 89 billion US dollars for the effort in 2014. According to the report, China committed to create a state with a low-carbon future scored the highest index at 2.29 on a scale of 0-5 after topping the list last year with a score of 2.23.
- In 2014 the Chinese have added 35 GW of renewable power capacity in excess of the capacity operating in 49 countries of sub-Saharan Africa, including South Africa and Nigeria. In addition to the existing state of Chinese state next rank for this criterion, namely Brazil, Chile, South Africa and India.
the contents of the ASEAN Community in 2025 already agreed Together
Vision ten years to come to the ASEAN Region in 2025 has been agreed, with the signing of "The 2015 Kuala Lumpur Declaration on the Establishment of the ASEAN Community" and "The Kuala Lumpur Declaration on the ASEAN 2025: Forging Ahead Together".
"Declaration of ASEAN Community in 2025 was an important moment because it is a continuation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) which will be applicable on 31 December 2015.
- ASEAN ASEAN Community in 2025 is a vision 10 years into the future," said Secretary of Commerce, Thomas Lembong, in a press release to media, Monday (23/11).
- Both the declaration is a guide in improving the quality of ASEAN economic integration of ASEAN in the next ten years, explained the Minister of Trade.
- ASEAN community in 2025 include the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), otherwise known as the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC), and the ASEAN Socio-Culture Community (ASCC).
- In the AEC Blueprint 2015, there are five pillars, which consists of: AEC integrated and cohesive ASEAN competitive and dynamic, increase connectivity and sectoral cooperation, ASEAN resilient, inclusive and oriented and focus on the community, as well as ASEAN Global.
- By implementing the AEC 2025 blueprint, each ASEAN member country will have an equal and inclusive growth so as to reduce the differences in levels of development to reduce poverty, promote growth per capita is high, and increasing the number of middle-income people.
- Minister Thomas explains again in a press release her, "With the implementation of the blueprint MEA 2025, Indonesia is expected to reach the target of creating economic zones are integrated and unified that will encourage economic growth that is sustainable and able to survive in the face of crisis and global economic uncertainty. "
- Meanwhile, Director of ASEAN Cooperation Ministry of Commerce Donna Gultom added that the preparation of a strategic action blueprint AEC 2015 is also adapted to the Indonesian national development plans.
- "In preparation, Indonesia seeks to minimize potential commitments that are difficult for Indonesia to improve its competitiveness as well as in accordance with the long-term national development plan of Indonesia," said Donna.
- In addition, other things achieved at the 27th ASEAN Summit, namely the declaration of a "Joint Statement on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Negotiations" by the Heads of State or Head of Government RCEP members.
- In the declaration, the Heads of State or Government RCEP members instructed his economic ministers to complete negotiations RCEP in 2016.
- This was done in view of RCEP can improve the quality of economic integration in the region, quality of life, and equitable development, and to strengthen economic ties between RCEP member countries.
- Analysis Research Vibiz signatory declarations see this as a form of shared commitment to build and develop the ASEAN economic region that is advanced and superior damalm constellation of global trade.
- No less than Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak, at the opening of the ASEAN Summit to ensure that economic growth in the region could reach seven percent in 2025 with the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). Liberalization and integration of ASEAN region, he said, making ASEAN the current gross domestic product of around 2.5 trillion dollars have a greater role in the world.
- Now the challenge for the Indonesian economy, that we can no longer shy away from an open economic system throughout the region.
- Protectionism in order, for example, to protect the domestic industry capacity, it would be difficult to implement and even more difficult in the future.
- The workers and other workers can no longer origin and protest demonstrations there while the expertise and productivity remain low.
- Foreign workers in the region will be passing more easily enter the labor market.
- All parties, therefore, have to prepare and improve the quality of its competence to compete in the era of free trade between countries.
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Hong Kong Inflation Rise From Worst Position 3 Years
Hong Kong managed to get out of the worst inflation rate since July 2012 in September according to data reported to the Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong on the level of consumer prices in October increased from the previous month.
The increase in inflation for many was a surprise after getting down from the previously estimated in September.
- The consumer price index or the country's inflation rate rose 2.4 percent in tahunanan in October, faster than the 2.0 percent rise in the previous month, which was the lowest rate of increase in more than three years, namely July 2012.
- The increase in inflation was contributed by the increase in commodity prices, especially the price of rental housing, ready meals as well as alcoholic beverages and tobacco.
- On the other hand since October 2014 until October 2015 there is a price reduction in tariffs of electricity, gas and water (-4.7 percent from -10.1 percent in September); the price of durable goods (-5.8 percent); clothing and footwear (-1.2 percent) as well as the transport rates fell 0.5 percent.
- Also according to the Census and Statistics Department report, on a monthly basis composite consumer price index increased by 1.8 percent, from 2.6 percent growth in the previous month. And core inflation rose to 2.3 percent in October from 2.1 percent in September.
- In the future, according to analyst Vibiz Research Center, the country's inflation should continue to rise considering the shrinking external price pressures and moderate growth rate of the local state economy.
- And as informai, The Hong Kong government will continue to monitor inflation developments, especially its impact on low-income communities.
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Pound European Session 24 November Trying to Rebound
Sterling exchange rate movements which had gained in early trading (24/11) corrected at addressing the European trading session the market attitude looking at the President's speech BOE-Mark Carney before the British parliament on the country's inflation conditions.
- UK inflation rate is still contracted on an annual basis in October, as already reported last week became ballast pound exchange rate movements that were previously bullish obtain power from the BOE plans to raise the benchmark interest rate.
- Additionally momentum evening pengutan US dollars, further weakening the movement of GBPUSD pair, of which 2 will be released economic data that shows the data indicated positive and will lift the US dollar index which in this session was natural pressure.
- Pound exchange rate movements in the European session (10:00:35 GMT) moves the weak against the US dollar, having opened weaker at 1.5126 in early trading (0000 GMT), the pair GBPUSD down 3 pips or 0.01% and the value of the rolling is at 1, 5123.
- However, for the next trade, Vibiz Research Center analyst estimates GBPUSD pair will continue to fall to as low as 1.5094, but if there is a correction towards the pound may rise to 1.5170 position on the line daily MA5.
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Estimates of US Q3 GDP Up, But Slows In Annual
The US economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the third quarter while corporate profits slipped.
Gross domestic product, the size of the goods and services produced in the rest of the economy, rose at a 2.1% annual rate positions seasonally adjusted in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday (24/11), up from an initial estimate of 1.5% growth , according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. While the size of the Corporate Profit QoQ fell 1.1% in the July-to-September and down 4.7% from a year earlier, the weakest annual reading since the last recession.
- Most of the decline reflects the pressure on US companies operating overseas as a stronger dollar and weak global demand.
- The decline underscores the challenges US companies will face short-term interest rates and labor costs began to increase.
- Despite the increase in performance of the third quarter, the growth rate marked a sharp decline from the second quarter, when the economy grew at a rate of 3.9%.
- From the previous year, the economy grew 2.2% in the third quarter, the slowest annual pace since the first quarter of 2014.
- Overall, economic growth has hovered around a modest rate of 2% over the past few years, with no sustained breakthrough for the economy since the end the recession in 2009.
- The increase in the third quarter largely due to a sharp upward revision to private inventories, which still weigh on GDP growth, but not as much as initially estimated. Inventories rose helped boost gross domestic product, but could be a potential bottleneck in the fourth quarter when inventory is withdrawn.
- "Movements in inventories basically just shuffling the growth between Q3 and Q4," the statement said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities Amherst.
- Tuesday's report also showed business investment-reflecting spending on construction, equipment and research and development of a stronger-than-expected. Nonresidential fixed investment rose at a rate of 2.4%, compared with a previous estimate of 2.1% earlier, as the company increased spending on equipment.
- The final sale of the real sector, the size of economic output that excludes inventory changes, rose at a 2.7% pace in the third quarter, down from the previous growth forecast at 3%. The figure is roughly measures the value of goods and services made in personal and company purchased inside and outside the country.
- Consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of economic output, increased at a rate of 3% in the third quarter, down from an initial estimate of 3.2% and 3.6% from the second quarter of this speed. These recent gains led by strong spending on durable goods, such as cars.
- Economists forecast a strong dollar and weakening overseas demand will weigh down economic growth in the third quarter.
- Tuesday's report showed the trade subtracted 0.22 percentage points from the growth rate. Exports, which add to the output, rose at a rate of 0.9% in the third quarter, down from an initial estimate of 1.9%, while imports rose 2.1%.
- Government spending, most of which have hindered economic growth since 2010, advancing at a speed of 1.7%, in line with previous readings.
- GDP measures has been revised in recent quarters, making the initial data more difficult to interpret. Further revisions for the third quarter probably on December 22, when the Commerce Department released the third estimate of GDP.
- But Tuesday's report will be the last read for Federal Reserve officials before the next meeting December 15 to 16, when many economists expect the central bank to raise short-term interest rates for the first time in almost a decade.
- Economists generally say the latest figures may dissuade Fed officials engaged in December.
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Wall Street close higher, Oil Price Increase Incidence of Pressure Addressing Russia-Turkey
- Wall Street closed higher on Wednesday morning earlier (25/11) the impact of rising oil prices and energy stocks helped offset earlier losses following the news of the fall of the Russian jets near the Syrian border.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed about 20 points higher, with shares of Exxon Mobil and Chevron contributing mostly to profits. Earlier, the index fell more than 100 points in mid-trading pressed decline in Goldman Sachs stock and Walt Disney.
- Energy sector stocks ended up 2.2 percent after a 2.5 percent gain over the top as the rise in the S & P 500. US crude oil futures closed up $ 1.12, or 2.68 percent, at $ 42.87 per barrel, amid rising geopolitical tensions.
- Previously, the WTI oil rose more than 3 percent to above $ 43 per barrel, while Brent briefly traded above $ 46 per barrel. The Dow Transports closed down 0.6 percent, with the aviation sector into the ballast index.
- The Nasdaq composite index benefit of 0.3 points after struggling in afternoon trading, Apple shares rose nearly 1 percent but shares of Facebook, Amazon and Alphabet down about 1 percent.
- Previously, the shares of the three companies fell nearly 2 percent or more to make lower Nasdaq index more than 1 percent.
- Earlier, the Dow futures briefly fell more than 100 points, while the S & P 500 and Nasdaq futures fell more than 0.6 percent.
- News of the crash Russian sentiment index in the US. A Russian warplane was shot down near the Syrian border on Tuesday morning after reportedly entered Turkish airspace.
- News service Turkey's state-run Anadolu Agency said the Russian-made warplanes involved dropped by two Turkish F16 jets.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin said the incident would have serious consequences for relations between the government and Turkey.
- As for news of US economic indicators, revised third quarter GDP resulted as expected, up 2.1 percent from the initial reading of 1.5 percent.
- Results Consumer confidence is at 90.4 for November, beyond expectations at 99.5 and below October at 99.1.
- Ryan Sweet, real-time economic director at Moody's Analytics, said the two deterioration in sentiment was "a little worried" but he "will not interfere with consumer confidence for consumer spending, especially in the holiday season."
- Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year near 0.93 percent and 10-year around 2.23 percent at the close. US dollar held around 0.2 percent lower against the major currencies, with the euro higher above $ 1.06 and the yen at ¥ 122.48 against the US dollar.
- The composite index S & P / Case Shiller index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.5 percent in September to an annual rate compared with 5.1 percent in the year to August. It was above the 5.1 percent estimate from a Reuters poll of economists.
- Key data for the Federal Reserve is nonfarm payrolls in November, which will be driving the December 4 meeting also appealing to the central bank will report Wednesday on the size of price inflation for personal consumption expenditures, where the size of the Fed is focused also on inflation.
- At Tuesday's close, the market expressed chance 78 percent chance of a rate hike in December, according to CME FedWatch tool.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 19.51 points, or 0.11 percent, at 17,812.19, with shares of Pfizer and Exxon Mobil experienced the largest increase, while Walt Disney and Merck shares into ballast index.
- The S & P 500 closed up 2.55 points, or 0.12 percent, at 2,089.14, with energy shares leading the six sectors were higher, while the utility and financial stocks experienced the biggest decline.
- While the Nasdaq composite index closed up 0.33 points, or 0.01 percent, at 5,102.81.
Tonight will be released some US economic data that can move on Wall Street are:
- Durable Goods Orders (MoM) in October that dindikasikan based on the consensus will increase 1.5% from the previous drop of -1.2%
- Personal Income (MoM) in October that dindikasikan based on the consensus will increase 0.4% from the previous 0.1%
- Personal Spending (MoM) in October that dindikasikan based on the consensus will increase 0.3% from the previous 0.1%
- Markit Services PMI Flash November dindikasikan based on the consensus will increase 0.3% from the previous 0.1%
- New Home Sales in October were dindikasikan based on the consensus to rise to 500K from the previous 468K.
- Analyst Vibiz Research Center estimates that there will be further strengthening in the Wall Street responds to the data of positive US economic indicators.
- However, it should be noted further conditions related to the Russian-Turkish hostility as a result of the Russian plane crash incident in the Syrian border.
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China's Earliest Monthly Economic Indicators Flash Warning Sign
China’s economy is still showing a muted response to waves of monetary and fiscal easing as of the half-way mark for the last quarter of the year, some of the earliest indicators suggest.
A privately compiled purchasing managers’ index and a gauge based on search engine interest in small and medium-sized businesses deteriorated this month, while a sentiment indicator dropped sharply from October. Combined, the reports make gloomy reading ahead of official releases, the earliest of which will be manufacturing and services PMI reports due Dec. 1.
- Six interest-rate cuts in a year and expedited fiscal spending have yet to revive growth as overcapacity and weakness in old drivers like manufacturing and residential construction weigh on the world’s second-biggest economy. If official data confirm the sluggishness, Premier Li Keqiang’s growth goal may be missed for a second-straight year.
Here’s a look at what the economy’s earliest tea leaves show:
Minxin PMI
- The unofficial purchasing managers indexes for manufacturing and services sectors both declined, snapping increases in the two previous months.
- The manufacturing PMI declined to 42.4 in November from 43.3 in October, while the non-manufacturing reading fell to 42.9 from 44.2, according to reports jointly compiled by China Minsheng Banking Corp. and the China Academy of New Supply-side Economics. Numbers below 50 signal deteriorating conditions.
- "China’s economy hasn’t bottomed yet and downward pressures are mounting," Jia Kang, director of the Beijing-based academy and former head of the finance ministry’s research institute, wrote in an e-mail. "We expect authorities to step up growth stabilization measures."
- The Minxin PMIs are based on a monthly survey covering more than 4,000 companies, about 70 percent of which are smaller enterprises. The private gauges have shown a more volatile picture than the official PMIs in the past year.
Baidu SME Index
- An index based on search interest in the products and services of small- and medium-sized enterprises edged down this month, showing weaker momentum in SMEs, which contribute about 60 percent of China’s economy.
- The preliminary reading of an index from Beijing-based Baidu Inc., which handles more than 6 billion searches a day, slipped to 98.2 this month from 98.4, the final reading of October. Readings below 100 signal deterioration.
- Sub-indexes for sectors such as electronic engineering, commercial services and chemical raw materials declined from last month, while those for software and home appliances picked up.
MNI Business Sentiment Index
- The gauge, released by Market News International in New York, slumped to 49.9, a five-month low, in November from 55.6 in October. It is based on a monthly poll of Chinese business executives at companies listed on either the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges.
- The reading "suggests that growth momentum remains soft,” Nomura Holdings Inc. economists led by Zhao Yang in Hong Kong wrote in a note. "We continue to expect a moderate fiscal stimulus from the central government, with policy banks playing a critical role in financing. The People’s Bank of China will likely maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance, though the pace of easing may slow."
World Economics Sales Managers Index
- Slightly better news: An index based on a monthly survey of sales managers for medium and large private sector companies was unchanged at 51.6 in November, according to report from London-based World Economics.
- Yet reflecting the rebalancing theme that has marked much of China’s data this year, the manufacturing SMI declined slightly from the previous month, while the services SMI held up, showing a similar trend to official PMI reports.
- “Services activity rose while the manufacturing sector fell slightly," Chief Executive Ed Jones wrote in a report on the research institute’s website. "The overall picture is still one of slow economic growth after the prolonged slowdown from mid-2014.”
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