Crude Oil Prices Rebound Anxiety Disorder Due to Global Supply
Oil prices at the close of trading on Tuesday morning (17/11) turned the rebound triggered by fears of terrorist attacks in Paris could disrupt global oil supplies. WTI oil futures prices for December contract closed up $ 1, or 2.45%, at $ 41.74 dollars per barrel, after earlier falling to 40 dollars per barrel, an important limit to the oil market which never violated to bring to decline Further oil, to lows not seen since 2009. While the price of Brent oil for December delivery was 16 cents to $ 44.63 dollars per barrel.
Failure to fall below $ 40 on Monday due to some technical buying in crude oil, traders said, supported by gains on Wall Street. On Monday, OPEC said the average price of exports between the member countries fell to 39.21 dollars per barrel on Friday, breaking the level of 40 dollars per barrel for the first time since 2009.
In the face of oversupply in the world market miyak, OPEC has maintained a policy to maintain stable oil production to maintain market share, rather than cut production to shore up prices. Oil prices have dropped more than 60 percent since June last year due to higher production and an increase in inventory coincided with the economic slowdown in Asia, especially in China and Japan, which slipped back into recession in the third quarter.
Baker Hughes data showed an increase in first in the US to increase the number of oil refineries in 11 weeks on Friday, while the International Energy Agency said there is a record 3 billion barrels of crude oil products and oil in tanks around the world.
Analyst Vibiz Research Center estimates that oil prices may still experience pressure to the negative sentiment increase in world oil supplies. The price of oil will be moved through a range of 40.00 to 38.00 Support, if prices turn higher will try to penetrate the resistance range of 44.00 to 46.00.
Depressed the yen exchange rate movements against the US dollar continues until the European session this afternoon (16/11) after the beginning of the Asian trading session the Japanese currency opened weaker after economic data mengganbarkan poor condition of the Japanese economy last Q3 period.
Data released by the Cabinet Office of Japan yesterday said there has been a recession in the country's sunrise on the data PDQ Q3 ago. Japanese GDP in the third quarter and contracted back into position after -0.2% the previous quarter are in position minus also quarterly, while in annual terms the GDP fell to a -0.8% after -0.7 the previous period.
Poor economic development of this country to make the exchange rate more depressed yen after last week had gained a weekly basis. The strong position of the US dollar index this afternoon further expand the volume of the fall of the yen exchange rate so that the pair USDJPY shot up to its highest level during the last 3 trading days.
Yen exchange rate movements in the middle of the European session (09:00:35 GMT) weakened against the US dollar, USDJPY opened stronger at 122.25 in early trading (0000 GMT), the yen fell 70 pips or 0, 7% and value pair are rolling at 122.95.
For further trading, analyst Vibiz Research Center estimates USDJPY pair will continue to rise to the level of bolinger 122.96-123,23 on the middle and top 5 Daily. If the correction the pair could fall to as low as 122.20.
Amid the European trading session this afternoon (16/11), the exchange rate of the pound against the US dollar to continue weakening still moving weak Asian session after last week scored the biggest weekly gain since the last week in August.
Economic data released today also helped reinforce the negative market sentiment towards the GBPUSD pair has strong fundamentals when BOE plans to raise interest rates kingdom which plans to get out of the group of the European Union.
The development of economic data above indicated by the consultancy report property-Rightmove England this afternoon to survey the selling price of homes in the country, which fell to -1.3% after a previous period rose 0.6% position.
Aussie exchange rate movements in the European session (09:30:35 GMT) moves the weak against the US dollar, after a strong opening at 0.5235 in early trading (0000 GMT), the GBPUSD pair fell 33 pips or 0.3% and the value of the rolling is at 0.5202. However, for the next trade, Vibiz Research Center analyst estimates pair AUDUSD continue weakening to a level of 1.5165 if 1.5182 breaks range. But if there is a change in direction can be moved up to 1.5236 on the center line of BB11.
Malaysia Economic Slump Q3, Global Pressure Hajar mine industry
Malaysia's economic growth is not able to withstand the pressure of the global economy on the mining sector so that economic growth in the third quarter and going down from the previous quarter. Second quarter GDP data from the previous quarter, it appears the Malaysian economy this year to decline.
Department of Statistics Malaysia today announced the period Q3 GDP data and then dropped to 4.7 percent on an annual basis, slower than the 4.9 percent growth in the previous quarter. But the data is consistent with previous estimates.
Malaysia GDP Annual Growth Rate On a quarterly basis, GDP grew at a slower pace of 0.7 percent in the three months to September, following a 1.1 percent gain in the previous three months. In addition to poor trimmed the country's mining industry, the business services sector growth slows to 4.4 percent in the period ended in September, down from 5.0 percent in the previous quarter.
Passable industry growing period of the third quarter that the manufacturing sector is growing at a faster pace of 4.8 percent after rising 4.2 percent in the previous quarter. For a major cause of declining economic growth in Malaysia, namely the mining sector accounted for 8.3 percent of Malaysia's economy, slumped to 5.3 percent from 6.0 percent.
In a separate report, the statistical office announced that the country's current account surplus slipped to MYR 5.1 billion in the three months ended September from MYR 7.6 billion in the previous quarter. When compared with the economic growth of neighboring countries, the Indonesian economy increased in the third quarter from the previous quarter, in which GDP Indonesia successfully climbed to 4.7% from 4.6% the previous position.
Japanese Business Investment shrinks, Worst Since 2011
Along with reporting of Japanese economic growth data that the economic recession experienced since the third quarter GDP data back contraction, the Cabinet Office of Japan also announced the investment performance of business in that country declined, causing GDP minus.
Japan business investment has declined over the last two quarters, while in the position of the worst investment since the first half of 2011 when at that time the business prospects of many companies destroyed by the strongest earthquake in the history of the country.
Business investment has dropped 5 percent in the Q3 period, this reduces the weakening 0.2 percent of economic growth on a quarterly basis. Additionally reportedly also reduced business assets that cut GDP by 0.5 percentage points.
In the report the non-residential business investment data to the natural contraction of -1.0 percent in the third quarter after shrinking 0.9 percent in the previous three months. This data is the data of the worst since the beginning of 2013.
Previous Japanese cabinet office reported gross domestic product declined 0.8 percent on an annual basis in the third quarter, continuing the previous quarter GDP contraction in the position of -0.7 percent.
Q3 quarterly GDP was down 0.2 percent the previous quarter at the same value. Japan's rate of capital spending barely grew from last year, despite the growth in the Japanese company's financial performance in the third quarter ago.
Will the Chinese Yuan Currency Fund Recognized As Reserve Currency
China's currency, the yuan included in the basket of currencies comprising the elite International Monetary Fund loan reserves, as stated Delaksana Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde, who paved the way for the IMF board to approve the move later this month.
The status of reserve currency for the yuan will mark an important milestone in China's efforts to make the country as a global economic power.
This step should help strengthen state finances around the world and increase the demand for central banks and investors to hold assets in that currency.
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde support the move after a staff report says Beijing has passed all operational hurdles in the initial assessment earlier this year. The staff stated yuan meet the criteria for reserve currency status, which will be widely used for international transactions and widely traded in the principal foreign exchange markets.
In a statement, China's central bank said the assessment by the IMF staff efforts to support economic reform and development of China.
The People's Bank of China also said China will continue to overhaul the financial system and open up the market in an orderly way.
Economists say the obvious criteria sufficient funds provide staff broad authority in determining the strength of the currency for inclusion. Members of the most powerful institutions, including the United States, have indicated they will again accept Beijing's bid.
Therefore, the staff gave the green light to support the approval of the IMF board on 30 meeting of November.
Yuan will be joined by the dollar, euro, yen and pound as the currency basket of the IMF's elite that is used as reserve special loan.
Although the decision is likely to accelerate the demand for the Chinese currency, its rise as a global currency will depend on Beijing's ability to manage a major slowdown in the economy of the country and the government's commitment to liberalize financial markets and exchange rates.
Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University professor and former Chinese officials at the IMF, said that this decision will validate Beijing's efforts to overhaul the Chinese economy and is likely to spur the government to move forward with a broader reform plan.
Although the IMF board will likely sign the agreement at the end of this month, operationally, the yuan will not be included in the basket of currencies until the end of next year to allow time for the central bank to adjust their foreign exchange portfolios.
Reason Version Japan Natural Recession Economy Minister Akira
Japan's economy re-entered recession in the third quarter after the last recession in the second quarter of 2014, Shinzo Abe, addressing the government's plan to raise the sales tax.
But the recession that occurred in the third quarter due to weak corporate investment as presented Economy Minister Akira Amari (Monday 16/11), quoting conveyed Japan Today.
The reason Japan's recession continued with Akira Amari optimism that the four-quarter period later sakura country's economy will recover preparing targeted Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will increase the projected nominal GDP by 20 percent by 2020.
Japanese Economics Minister's statement against the background of the third quarter GDP report by the Japanese Cabinet Office figures showed yesterday that the contraction continued contraction of the second quarter GDP value.
A negra is said to be a recession if two successive quarters of negative GDP print.
Japan's cabinet office reported gross domestic product declined 0.8 percent on an annual basis in the third quarter, continuing the previous quarter GDP contraction in the position of -0.7 percent.
Q3 quarterly GDP was down 0.2 percent the previous quarter at the same value. At the BOJ meeting in October, the central bank has lowered its growth forecast for the fiscal to 1.2 percent from 1.7 percent.
With this economic climate, analyst Vibiz Research Center saw the need for stimulus from the central bank, and the right time announce that at the end of the fourth quarter later.
The movement of the Euro vs. the US dollar, Who is the winner
Competition Euro against the US dollar on the forex market is still going on this evening. Adu economic fundamental data determines the strengthening of each exchange's main rival.
Of the Euro area, has released the data Euro area GDP growth rate for the third quarter. Gross domestic product in the group of 19 countries rose 0.3 percent, down from 0.4 percent in the previous period, which is also equal to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey.
While the release of economic growth in Germany and France each grew 0.3 percent, while Italy increased by 0.2 percent.
These results are certainly less favorable to the Euro. Observed current EURUSD exchange rate movements are in a negative position, down about -0.18% at 1.0795.
Currently there is no more fundamental that drives the Euro exchange rate. But for the US dollar, there is still one important ammunition that economic indicators Data Retail Sales (MoM) in October, which is based on a survey of economists will increase the level of 0.35 compared to 0.1% the previous results.
Results of Retail Sales estimates this could certainly be a strong capital for US dollars to beat Euro at night, if indeed the economist survey results can be achieved.
Analyst Vibiz Research Center estimates the movement of EURUSD pair will move in the range of 1.0759-1.0732 Support, and if rebounding will try to penetrate the resistance level in the range of 1.0821-1.0845.
Euro strength Truncated By fall in German Wholesale Prices
Strengthening exchange rate of the Euro since the beginning of the Asian trading session today are not able to survive long amid the European trading session today (11/11). The euro turned lower against the US dollar after the German Destatis announced decline in the domestic wholesale price.
Negative sentiment towards the EURUSD pair is getting stronger US dollar despite being weakened by loneliness catalyst that moves, when economic indicators show the level of the wholesale price of Germany is German WPI m / m fell to -0.4% from -0.6% the previous month.
Which makes the exchange rate Euro trimmed its gains due to data released far below the expected market expectations of an increase in the wholesale price of 2%. In addition the market worried about the release of inflation data tomorrow after this data.
Because if German inflation down again, the reason for the ECB to increase its economic stimulus is getting stronger because of the weakness of the Euro area inflation. Is this sentiment that weakens the Euro exchange rate in recent weeks.
Besides this night market is waiting for Mario Draghi's speech in the event made by the BOE in London.
Euro exchange rate movements in the European session (11:45:35 GMT) moved down against the US dollar, having opened weaker at 1.0723 in early trading (0000 GMT), the Euro exchange rate fell 7 pips or 0, 01% and the value of the rolling is at 1.0716.
For further trade until the close of trading American session ends tomorrow, Vibiz Research Center analyst estimates pair EURUSD continue weakening to 1.0690 range. But if there will be a correction back to 1.0769 position on MA 5 daily.
Greek Banks' Share Sales Said to Draw Orders at Minimum Levels
National Bank of Greece SA and Piraeus Bank SA are drawing orders from investors at the lowest price at which they’re allowed to sell shares, according to people familiar with the capital increases.
Pricing at that level could mean discounts of more than 90 percent compared with the stocks’ market prices, said the people, who asked not to be named because order-taking continues and bids may still come in at higher prices.
Alpha Bank AE, which is also selling stock, has received orders for all the shares that are on sale, said Chief Financial Officer Vassilios Psaltis. Eurobank Ergasias SA, National Bank and Piraeus have yet to cover the share sales, two people said.
In a year that has been fraught with political uncertainty, forced bank holidays and a market shutdown amid a government standoff with creditors, the lenders are asking investors for new capital for the second time in less than 20 months. The people said that investors so far are reluctant to place orders and the success of the exercise will depend on whether the country’s government strikes a deal with creditors this week, which will restore the normal flow of public funds to backstop the recapitalization process.
Stock Decline
“The market is placing a lot of emphasis on whether the Greek government can reach an agreement with Europe to clear the way for more funds,” said George Athanasakis, equity sales director at Pantelakis Securities SA in Athens. “That doesn’t make for a very optimistic mood in which to seek new investors. Share prices have come down a lot, which points to a big dilution for existing shareholders.”
Greek banks, which plan to shore up their capital before the end of the year, are heading for their biggest annual decline since at least 1996, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The country’s benchmark ASE Index has tumbled 22 percent in 2015, one of the worst performing in the world.
The country’s four largest banks are selling stock to fill part of a 14.4 billion-euro ($15.4 billion) hole in their accounts identified by the European Central Bank. The state-owned Hellenic Financial Stability Fund will contribute the rest, with loans from Greece’s latest bailout, but not before the government agrees with creditors on a set of so-called milestones attached to its aid agreement.
If banks are unable to raise funds from money managers, they may be resolved, leading to their nationalization.
Piraeus may sell new shares at the minimum regulatory price of 30 euro cents apiece, two of the people said. According to the bank’s Nov. 9 presentation, that will follow a reverse stock split that will bundle existing shares. At 30 cents, the price would be about 93 percent lower than the market price.
Reverse Split
Similarly, National Bank of Greece has announced plans for a 15-for-1 reverse stock split. A price set at 30 cents, the lowest price it can sell stock for, would imply a 95 percent discount.
Eurobank and Alpha Bank, the two smaller of Greece’s systemic lenders are also trying to cover the capital gap with measures including a debt-for-equity swap offer to bondholders. Eurobank has demand from investors for 75 percent of its total capital gap, according to a deal update sent to investors earlier Monday.
Stock investors can see their holdings almost wiped out as companies reorganize. Platinum miner Lonmin Plc is selling billions of new shares at a 94 percent discount, after warning investors that it might shut down if they didn’t approve the stock sale. Spanish gambling company Codere SA’s restructuring deal last year included an asset swap where bondholders ended up owning 97.8 percent of the company’s total equity.
Talks between the Greek government and representatives of the European Commission, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund during the weekend failed to reach a successful conclusion and are set to continue through Tuesday. The negotiations have progressed though, and euro-area officials may be able to decide on releasing aid payments to Greece as soon as Friday, according to two separate officials.
National Bank of Greece is seeking to raise 1.46 billion euros by selling stock and through a debt swap offer, according to a bourse filing late Monday. The remaining shortfall, totaling about 3 billion euros, will be covered with public funds from the HFSF, following a bail-in of existing stakeholders including the Greek state itself, which holds preference shares in the country’s biggest bank.
