European Stocks With Positive Moves ECB Stimulus Hopes
- European stocks traded higher on Monday (30/11) with investors braced themselves for a week of important related stimulus ECB and the movement of oil prices.
- Index of pan-European Stoxx 600 traded 0.5 percent higher in afternoon trading. All sectors were in positive territory except for utilities.
- European investors will shift their focus to the European Central Bank (ECB) this week, and whether the central bank will announce stimulus when it meets on Thursday. The central bank is expected to introduce more stimulus measures to revive inflation and encouraging growth in this region.
- Oil prices, the main driver of the market throughout 2015 will also be a focus, where OPEC members will gather to discuss the current market prospects. Many analysts believe the policy of the organization's output will not change, despite rising concerns over global oversupply.
- Oil prices traded more than 1 percent higher in afternoon trade, with Brent crude rose 65 cents to $ 45.51, while US crude traded at $ 42.45 per barrel.
- One of the top gainers on the STOXX 600 index were shares of Volkswagen cars, trading up 4.5 percent, despite a report in the newspaper Die Welt on Monday, said the company had to withdraw 2.46 million cars equipped with emission control software is illegal in Germany , Autos sector surged on the back of this, up 1.7 percent.
- German airline Lufthansa shares rose 2 percent. On Saturday, the airline signed an agreement with the services union Verdi in pay to about 33,000 personnel.
- In the FTSE index of London, one of the highest shares are sahhotel group InterContinental, rose 3.3 percent. The worst outcome is the stock Aberdeen Assam et Management, down 4 per cent on news of a 12.5 percent decline in assets as investors pull money out of emerging market funds, Reuters reported.
- British miners, BHP Billiton fell nearly 3 percent, after Brazil announced plans to sue the owner of Samarco iron ore, BHP and Vale, for $ 5.2 billion. Nonetheless, other mining companies traded sharply higher, including Glencore, up 3 percent, and Antofagasta and Anglo American, both trade in positive territory.
- Shares of Dutch insurance company Delta Lloyd, slid more than 10 percent after the company announced a € 1 billion ($ 1 050 000 000) rights issue to boost capital ratios and said it would no final dividend payment in 2015. However, the insurance sector traded higher .
- Elsewhere, the heads of state gathered in Paris on Monday for a major UN summit on climate change. There is hope that the leaders at the summit to find an agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions after the failure to do so at the last conference in Copenhagen six years ago.
- Analyst ZATco Research Center estimates that the European market could continue strengthening economic indicator data to respond to the European region as a data Unemployment Rate stable and data Markit Manufacturing PMI Final November increased.
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Wall Street Closed Negative, Hope Rebound In US Manufacturing Data
- Consumer stocks were among the drop in the S & P 500, where the health care sector is trading down more than 1 percent, recorded the largest decline.
- Retail stocks are not performing great on Cyber Monday. Target shares closed down nearly 1.3 percent amid reports the retailer's website temporarily crashed due to high traffic. Target shares lost 6 percent in November.
- Energy sector led the gains in the S & P 500 Monday but closed up from session highs after crude oil gave up intraday gains of more than 1.5 percent to settle down 6 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $ 41.65 per barrel. WTI Crude Oil lost 10.6 percent in November, its worst month since July.
- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets on Friday and is not expected to change the attitude of letting arrangements based on market prices.
- Meanwhile, shares of Nike is the biggest weight on the Dow Jones.
- Meanwhile, shares of Chevron and IBM contributed the highest. Amazon shares fell 1.26 percent on Monday, but grabbed a 6.2 percent monthly increase.
- November Chicago PMI data 48.7 achieve results, is in contraction territory and down from 56.2 in October. While Pending Home Sales figures for October are released National Association of Realtors rose only 0.2 percent, ending a two-month decline in a row, but far below expectations for a rebound of 1.0 percent, according to Reuters.
- In addition to the key employment report Friday, also on Thursday, the European Central Bank is expected to expand its easing program and cut deposit rates are already negative. Fed Chair, Janet Yellen will attend the Economic Club of Washington on Wednesday and make a speech before the Congress Joint Economic Committee on Thursday.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 78.57 points, or 0.44 percent, at 17,719.92, with the greatest deterioration in Merck shares and Wal-Mart, while Caterpillar shares recorded the highest increase.
- The Dow Jones rose 0.3 percent for November, with shares of Home Depot shares Cisco's biggest winners and worst performers. The S & P 500 closed down 9.70 points, or 0.46 percent, at 2,080.41, with health care stocks led the decline in the five sectors lower, while the achieved the highest increase in the energy sector.
- The S & P 500 won 0.05 percent rise in November, with the best players of the financial sector and the utilities sector remained the largest.
- While the Nasdaq index closed down 18.86 points, or 0.37 percent, at 5,108.67. The Nasdaq composite index rose 1.09 percent for the month of November.
- Apple shares ended higher Monday, but lost 1 percent for the month. IShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) closed down nearly 2 percent lower but rose 2.7 percent for the month of November.
- The Dow Transports closed down about 1.4 percent, from a decline of 0.3 percent for the month. On the night of the data will be released US economic indicators:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI in November, which is indicated by the results of the consensus will be at 50.4, up from a previous forecast at 50.1 Data Markit Manufacturing PMI Final in November, which is indicated by the results of the consensus will be at 52.6, down from a previous forecast at 54.1 Data Construction Spending (MoM) in October, which is indicated by the results of the consensus will be at 0.5%, down from a previous forecast at 0.6%.
- ZATco Research Analyst estimates on trade tonight, is estimated to Wall Street will move positively respond to the data-dominated economic indicators strengthening. Also if there was a strengthening dollar will potentially reinforce Wall Street.
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Japanese Stocks End Down, Further Strengthening Yen Potentially Blocked
At the end of the Japanese stock market trading early in the week on Monday (30/11), the Nikkei continued weakening. The Nikkei closed down -37 points, or -0.69 percent, at 19 748, as investors are still digesting and has not been well with the results of the data released in the morning.
- Data released this morning the Japanese economic indicators with mixed results, namely: Industrial Production (YoY) Prel October, obtaining results -1.4%, down from the previous result on the position of -0.8%. Industrial Production (MoM) Prel October, obtaining results of 1.4%, an increase from the previous position of 1.1%, while the consensus was 1.9%.
- Retail Sales (YoY) in October, the result of a 1.8% gain, up from the previous result on the position of -0.1%, and from 0.8% consensus.
- Harumi Taguchi, chief economist at IHS GlobalInsight, said in a note Monday afternoon that although there was an increase in the monthly industrial production, due to an increase in machinery and transport equipment, the overall rate in the near future are likely to be weak, "until demand strengthens, which will encourage companies to invest in machinery and equipment.
- " He added, "The outlook for the industry showed growth of only 0.2% m / m in November because of a downward revision to the majority of industry groups, particularly for capital and non-durable consumer goods were naturally decrease of 0.9% for the month of December."
- As for Nikkei futures moved positive, up 80 points or 0.41% at 19.830 positions, down from the previous closing at 19.750. For the next trading tomorrow, will respond to the economic indicator data to be released tomorrow are:
- Data Nikkei November Final Manufacturing PMI, which is indicated by the results of the consensus will be at 52.8, up from its previous position at 5:24 Data Average Cash Earnings (YoY) in October, is expected to be in a position 0:40%, down from the previous 0.60%.
- Manufacturing Nikkei economic indicator data which indicated stronger, is expected to strengthen the Yen exchange rate. In the event of a strong yen, the Nikkei index has the potential to weaken.
- Analyst ZATco Research Center estimates that the movement in the Nikkei index will move down further limited to respond to the potential strengthening of the yen.
- Technically Nikkei index will move within the range of 19.730 to 19.622 Support and Resistance range from 19.938 to 20.029.
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Australia Private Company Employee Salaries Rise Fair
Of the third quarter financial statements of private companies open in Australia already reported to show a decline in operating profit according to the data summary Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported today (30/11).
- According to the survey ABS in the third quarter and profit before tax of listed companies in Australia rose 1.3 percent rose to the position after the previous quarter, there is the position of the data -0.5 percent contraction. And if it is calculated on the average profit of the company in the land of kangaroos reached AUD64,61 billion in Q3 increased from AUD62,84 billion.
Australia Corporate Profits
- From the data above shows the company's profit ies open in Australia in October was the highest since the second quarter of 2014 when the current average corporate profits reached AUD64,79 billion.
- By the increase in the profit making companies raise wages and salaries of employees respectively. From the survey ABS during the quarter wage and salary workers listed company in Australia increased by 1 percent.
- From this data can signal an increase in the growth of the Australian economy in the third quarter after the second quarter of this year GDP Australia dropped to 2% from the first quarter of 2.5 percent.
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Korea Business Prospects Worsened By weakening economy of the Interior
Business prospects worsened in South Korea by the end of this year according to the survey conducted by the central bank South Korea (BOK) to approximately 2800 companies in the country this month. In the survey of domestic companies confidence Korea decreased for both business prospects in November mapun for December.
- Of the thousands of companies above, the company manufacturing the most pessimistic about their business prospects. Business survey index (BSI) carried BOK for non-manufacturing companies dropped to position 69 from position 71 index points in November. In addition to manufacturing index dropped to position 69, which was down 1 point from the previous month.
South Korea Business Confidence
- Details of the next survey, the index measuring the outlook for the company's domestic sales fell to 79 points in December, while the previous month to reach 81demikian also to separate index measuring business sentiment non-export companies here are in position 68.
- Furthermore, the company confidence about the prospects of their exports fell 3 points to 70 positions from the previous month. South Korea's exports have fallen every month since the beginning of this year, with exports last year dropped 15.8 percent in October, the highest decline in more than six years.
- Latest survey data show that 23.8 percent of the companies surveyed stated domestic business prospects going forward degenerated into a big problem, while 19 percent believe their business prospects down by external circumstances and 9 percent believe weak export beratkan business prospects in the country.
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Already 4 month Japanese Industrial Production doldrums
Although last October resulted in the production of Japanese industry increased from the previous month, but over the past 12 months per October sunrise domestic industrial production is decreasing as reported Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan (METI) today (30/11) ,
- The government report on the performance of the domestic industry showed an increase of data on a monthly basis to the position of 1.4 percent in October, after the previous month's 1.1 percent position. However, on an annual basis industrial production dropped 1.4 percent, continuing contraction in the data in September and well above the -0.8 position slightly its estimate for a 0.9 percent decline.
- Japan Industrial ProductionDan when viewed graph above Japanese industrial production data observed to deteriorate to the worst position for 4 months straight. And addressing the poor performance of this industry, METI remains optimistic for the production of next month until the end of this year.
- From projections made METI, in November there will be an increase in particular electronic communication equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and devices as well as electronic components. However, in December the government had anticipated a decline especially in the transport equipment and electronic devices and components.
- From the supply side, in October slumped 1.9 percent to inventory ratio fell 3 percent on a monthly basis which fell for the second month in a row. However, in annual inventories rose 0.2 percent, with the ratio of inventories fell 0.5 percent. Poor performance is attributed to the domestic industry loneliness domestic orders also orders from abroad.
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Forex Weekly Technical Analysis This Week
Forex trading last week is still led by the strengthening of the US dollar for the second straight week to the strongest position throughout the year and a new record in March. And the movement of the forex market this week is estimated to be won by the US dollar, so as to reasonably affect the cross rate with other major currencies.
Technical Analysis The following is a technical analysis this week for some major pair:
EURUSD :
- The movement of this pair last week continued weakening weekly for 2 weeks running up to 44 pips. And this week the pair led to the upward revision to the level of 1.0611 in the middle bolinger 3 Weekly appropriate technical journal. But if the reverse direction, then the pair may simply come down to levels below 1.0515 on bolinger 5 and 20 Daily.
AUDUSD :
- Pergerakan pair ini pekan lalu terkoreksi dari penguatan 2 pekan berturut sebelumnya hingga jatuh 44 pips. Dan pekan ini diprediksi pair akan turun ke level 0.7150 pada bolinger tengah 3 dan 5 Weekly. Namun jJika tidak tembus level 0.7150 maka akan kembali naik ke level 0.7206 pada MA 20 weekly. Jika tembus level 0.7210, maka pair akan terus naik ke level 0.7283 pada bolinger atas 5 weekly.
GBPUSD :
- Last week the pair plunged deep enough and continued weakness in the weekly 2 weeks running with attenuation up to 150 pips. This week the movement of GBPUSD pair is predicted to move down to the 1.4940 level on bolinger under 20, 11 and 5 Daily and if it does not penetrate that level, then the pair will go back up to the 1.5089 level on bolinger on 3 and 5 daily.
USDJPY :
- Last week the pair failed to continue the previous week with a weekly gain attenuation thin just 7 pips. But for this week USDJPY is predicted to move stable and tends to weaken to a level below 5 122.45-122.49 at bolinger daily. But if it does not penetrate 122.45-122.49 level, then the pair will rise to the level of 123.20-123.25 at bolinger on 5 weekly.
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Global market tuned ECB policy and the US Labor Data
Begin trading this morning, we report the Wall Street closed down on Tuesday morning earlier (12.1) with a decrease in retail stocks, as well as investors awaited key data employment and European central bank policy this weekend. The Dow Jones closed down 0.44 percent, at 17,719.92, with Merck shares fell and Wal-Mart. S & P 500 closed down 0.46 percent, at 2,080.41, with a decrease in the five sectors, led by the health care sector. The Nasdaq composite index fell 0.37 percent, at 5,108.67.
- Meanwhile, Asian stocks opened higher, turned against the weakness on Wall Street with the positive data of the domestic economic indicators. This morning the Nikkei rose 0.32 percent to 19 815 shares with a rise of Toyota, Sony, Canon and Mitsubishi Electric. Kospi rose 0.73 percent, in 2007 with gains in Samsung Elctronics. ASX 200 rose 0.94 percent, in 5215 with the increase in stocks BHP Billiton and ANZ.
- Of the commodity markets, spot gold price of LLG at the end of trading early this morning closed up 1 percent at 1064.06 dollars per troy ounce, but still near its lowest level in six years and is still in potential weakness with the prospect of higher US interest rates. While the price of oil futures for WTI December contract closed down 0.1%, to 41.65 dollars per barrel hampered by rising OPEC supply of crude oil and crude oil exports rebound Iraq.
- Of the foreign exchange market, at the close of trading this morning the US Dollar strengthened against the Euro and Yen, dollar bullish trend slightly delayed impact of Data Pending Home Sales in October were not as expected. EURUSD fell 0:26%, at 1.0564. GBPUSD rose 12:16% at 1.5055. USDJPY rose 12:29%, at 123.09.
- Of the Indonesian capital market, the Composite Stock Price Index at the close of trading early in the week on Monday (30/11) ended in negative territory, down sharply -2.50% at 4446.46. JCI weakening affected rampant profit taking by foreign investors. Carrying out the exchange of foreign funds reached 1.46 trillion rupiah. JCI to further trade, estimated to be in the range of support 4387-4417 and 4506-4566 resistant. Stocks that are interesting to observe today: AKRA, ICBP, TLKM and ASRI.
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Hindered by Supply Crude Oil Prices OPEC and Iran Export
arga crude oil at the close of trading on Tuesday before dawn (1.12) closed down hampered by an increase in OPEC supply of crude oil and crude oil exports rebound Iran.
OPEC supply has increased in November at 31.77 million barrels per day (bpd) from 31.64 million in October, according to the survey, based on shipment data and information from sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.
- Meanwhile, Iran, OPEC's second biggest producer after Saudi Arabia, hoping to boost crude exports as much as 1 million barrels per day in the month, after sanctions against its nuclear program is eliminated.
- Some traders and investors expect material changes to OPEC production policy when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting in Vienna, on Friday.
- WTI oil futures prices for December contracts closed down 6 cents, or 0.1%, to 41.65 dollars per barrel, after earlier rising to 42.61 dollars per barrel.
- Meanwhile, the price of Brent oil futures fell down 29 cents at 44.57 dollars per barrel.
- Analysts reducing price expectations in 2016 for Brent crude. In a Reuters poll they saw the benchmark with an average price of 57.95 dollars per barrel, down 57 cents from the previous month's poll.
- OPEC is determined to continue to increase oil production despite the resulting financial strain even the chief architect of the policy, Saudi Arabia, worried about weaker members who fear prices could drop further towards $ 20.
- The end of the US Thanksgiving holiday also brought back to the market of investors based in the US, a factor which is likely to increase the volatility of trading on Monday.
- Traders will also be watching data on non-farm payrolls on Friday. A strong jobs report could support for a rate hike in December 15 to 16 at a meeting of the US Federal Reserve and gives an indication of economic health.
- Other events this week including a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday where economists polled by Reuters expect the ECB to announce measures of monetary easing policies.
- Analyst ZATco Research Center predicted oil prices will potentially be a natural pressure with sentiment excess world oil supplies. The price of oil will be moved through a range of 40.00 to 38.00 Support, if prices turn higher will try to penetrate the resistance range of 44.00 to 46.00.
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AirAsia Found to Have Crashed on Rudder Fault, Crew
- AirAsia Flight 8501’s pilots effectively wrestled each other at the controls as they sought to fight off an electronics-system failure, dooming the plane and the lives of all 162 people on board last year, Indonesian crash investigators found.
- A crack in the soldering of the rudder system caused the plane to exit autopilot, then start rolling sideways and upward, according to a report released on Tuesday by Indonesia’s National Transportation Safety Committee. The two pilots then tried to control the aircraft in opposing ways, leading the plane to stall.
- “What the captain was doing wasn’t in line with the co-pilot,” head investigator Nurcahyo Utomo told reporters in Jakarta. “The captain pulled while the co-pilot pushed so the recovery wasn’t effective.”
- Last December’s crash of the Airbus A320 drew further attention to aviation safety in Asia as it occurred months after the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 and the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. AirAsia Bhd. is seeking to move on from the tragedy as it braces for its slowest revenue growth in at least a dozen years.
- “It’s the airline’s responsibility to keep the aircraft in good shape to fly and the crew to respond accordingly,” said Shukor Yusof, founder of Endau Analytics. “It will have a negative impact on AirAsia as a whole.”
- AirAsia Group Chief Executive Officer Tony Fernandes said he won’t leave any stone unturned to make sure the industry learns from the accident. “There’s much to be learned here for AirAsia, the manufacturer and the aviation industry,” Fernandes said on Twitter.
- As a result of the pilots’ actions, the committee said it’s recommending plane maker Airbus Group SE to have connected cockpit control sticks similar to those in rival Boeing Co. planes. Airbus said in a statement that it’s studying the report’s contents.
Repeated Defects
- Investigators examined aircraft maintenance records and found 23 instances of rudder-system problem in the last 12 months, with the interval of occurrence becoming shorter in the last three months, according to the report. The investigation also found AirAsia’s post-flight maintenance not optimal, as it failed to detect the repeated defects, Utomo said.
- The investigation report recommended all pilots be trained in taking over controls during a crisis and that Airbus have mandatory recovery training for all pilots using its aircraft.
- Flight 8501 was en route to Singapore from Surabaya on Dec. 28 when the plane lost contact with air-traffic controllers soon after they gave permission to ascend to 34,000 feet amid bad weather.
- The plane, operated by Malaysia-based AirAsia’s Indonesian affiliate, reached 38,000 feet before the plane stalled and started falling by 20,000 feet per minute, Utomo said.
- Satellite images had shown storm clouds that reached as high as 44,000 feet, investigators had said earlier. The committee found no indication that weather was a factor in the crash, Utomo said.
- Debris from the AirAsia crash was spotted in the Java Sea on Dec. 30, and the jet’s fuselage was found on the seabed two weeks later.
- At least three crashes -- an airforce plane carrying civilians, a PT Trigana Air Service plane and a 10-person flight by PT Aviastar Mandiri -- by Indonesian carriers have occurred since AirAsia’s, increasing scrutiny on a market already faced with accidents and oversight issues.
