Digest Dec 2015 No4 : Between The Action Of The Pressure Lid Selling Euro After ECB Meeting
Gold Price Slips By strengthening of the dollar ahead of US rate hike
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The price of gold fell more than 1 percent at the close of trading on Tuesday morning (12/08), after the dollar lifted by upbeat US jobs data released last Friday which reinforces expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week.
LLG spot gold prices fell 1.4 percent on 1,071.47 dollars per troy ounce. While the price of US gold futures for February delivery fell 0.8 percent padai 1,075.20 dollars per troy ounce.
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The drop in crude oil futures prices to near seven-year low also weighed on gold prices, traders said.
Gold prices have fallen 9 percent so far this year, mostly because of expectations that US interest rates will rise for the first time in almost a decade. The focus will be devoted to the US central bank meeting next week.
With US interest rates will rise, the wider environment remains inhospitable for gold, analysts said.
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While the spot price of platinum makes the biggest decline among precious metals, fell sharply by 3.4 percent to $ 849.50 per ounce. While the price of silver fell 1.4 percent to $ 14.35 per ounce and palladium prices fell 2.3 percent to $ 550.65 per ounce.
Analyst ZATco Research Center estimates that the price of gold would be potentially weakened by the imminent planned increase in US interest rates this December, which will further boost the US dollar. It is estimated that the price of gold will try to penetrate the support level 1069.50-1067.50, and if the price rebounded will try to penetrate the resistance level 1073.50-1075.50
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Outlook The combination of the Main Event of the Week Forex
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This week is a mix between the action of the pressure lid selling Euro after ECB meeting last week and the increase in the interest rate the Fed first after nine years in the next week. The important thing is to install the correct position, especially with liquidity thinning ahead of year-end period. There is a threat of a decline in liquidity will occur at risk "squeezing" against the US dollar and push the US-exchange rose higher. But besides that it is also a strong trend in sales closed the Euro if there is a sharp downward movement towards the single currency's new that will lead to the deadlock against the EUR / USD. Overall, there may be a greater optimism on the outlook for global growth and the best to buy the Australian dollar and New Zealand on the decline.
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Amid Euro ferocious rally, it is easy to forget that the ECB has loosened policy in the past week with a deposit rate cuts further into negative territory. The euro is still the principal-exchange for global funding and will continue to make substantial capital outflows from the region are likely to become a channel for global risk assets. In addition there is also the possibility of greater optimism for global demand conditions by energy prices remain at depressed levels.
The main release of US data on Friday concentrated in retail sales, producer price and consumer confidence figures UoM all diskedulkan during the morning in New York. Strong employment data on Friday last week has added to expectations of strong interest rate hike next week and the data that comes out to be very extreme in order to trigger a rethinking of the existing conditions. But there will be significant impact to the broader expectations about the outlook for 2016 will be a significant impact on US dollar sentiment.
The Federal Reserve will not make any comment about monetary policy with them will enter a period of silence ahead of the FOMC decision on 16 December. The key element that must be considered is that the Fed does not want to surprise the market, especially after seeing the market influence of the ECB communications about the latest policy meeting. In this context, if there is no news of anything means the interest rate will be raised at a meeting in December to come.
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There are three central bank policy decisions that will provide important domestic influences. Reserve Bank of New Zealand will face conflicting pressures with a high degree of uncertainty to the domestic and international trends at a crucial point in the economic cycle. The market expects further interest rate reduction of 0.25% to to 2.50%, but there is definitely room hawkish central banks. Even in case of cutting, the possibility that hawkish subtraction with this expectation is the last movement of the RBNZ.
Bank of England remains trapped between the conflicting trends of monetary policy in the Euro zone and the US with further ECB easing while the Fed will keep tightening policy. There was relief with Sterling has weakened against the Eur, but inflationary pressures remain very low and the position of the ECB as a whole will make difficult for the central bank to tighten policy even if the Fed finished raising interest rates. Swiss National Bank will be relieved by the ECB did not even aggressive in providing further monetary easing sanctions.
Chinese data release will be observed closely by the latest CPI, industrial production and data supply of money and also the latest trade figures. The market will be looking for evidence of whether a stronger fiscal spending and increased money supply growth has begun to provide a positive influence on the economy. In particular, the volume of trade will be observed closely on Tuesday and a further reduction would be a significant negative effect on risk appetite while any recovery will drive the market to a more optimistic assessment.
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Crude Oil Price Drops Approaching Lowest Level 7 Years
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Crude oil prices fell to the lowest in almost seven years on Trafficking closing early Tuesday morning (12/08), after OPEC failed to address the excess supply continues to grow, while the dollar also continued to strengthen that makes the price of crude oil becomes more expensive.
The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) closed at 37.65 dollars a barrel, down $ 2.32, or 5.8 percent. This price is the lowest level since February 2009.
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While the price of crude oil WTI forward contracts in 2024 fell to below $ 60.
For the price of Brent crude oil, a global benchmark traded down $ 2.30 at 40.71 dollars per barrel, after reaching its lowest level since February 24, 2009.
The price of Brent crude oil futures and US crude was down as much as 6 percent in a late reaction to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) last Friday ended without an agreement to cut production.
"We are in a tug-of-war between market very shortage and oversupply of oil in the US and globally, such as Saudi Arabia continues to produce oil at a high level to maintain market share," said Chris Jarvis of Risk Management Caprock, a consultant energy market in Frederick , Maryland.
"This coupled with the strengthening of the dollar, as the market is anticipating a rise in US interest rates this month, oil heading lower with a target close at 32 for WTI."
The price of diesel oil futures were also the lowest since May 2009, while US gasoline prices fell to a one-month low as a sell-off extended to stem the complexity of petroleum wider.
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies after jobs data published on Friday reinforce US rate hike in December.
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OPEC production output of more than 30 million barrels per day (bpd) has been exacerbated by an excess supply of oil, pushing production beyond the 0.5-2 million bpd of demand.
The leader of OPEC, Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter in the world, think of conventional oil producers, including US oil drillers who have eaten these advantages, will eventually be squeezed out of the market with high production costs and low selling prices.
Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Nasser Amin told a conference in Doha he hopes to see oil prices adjusted at the beginning of next year as conventional supplies began to decline.
Patrick Pouyanne, CEO of the French oil company, Total, said it is still premature to say the price rebound in 2016, as production growth will still exceed demand.
Analyst ZATco Research Center estimates that oil prices may still experience pressure with sentiment excess world oil supplies and the strengthening dollar with certainty the imminent US interest rate hike this December. The price of oil will be moved through a range of 35.50 to 33.50 Support, if prices turn higher will try to penetrate the resistance range of 39.50 to 41.50.
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Forex Outlook Calendar This Week
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The euro rose due to disappointment with Draghi and this also makes the US dollar slumped against the other-exchange. Now what next Highlights this week before the decision to increase the interest rate is the interest rate decision of Switzerland, New Zealand and the UK, the data Australian employment, consumer sentiment and the producer price of US retail sales. These are the main events on the calendar this week Forex, Let's see outlooknya.
Haruhiko Kuroda spoke: Tuesday, 16:06. BOE Governor Haruhiko Kuroda was scheduled to speak in Tokyo. Kuroda has ignored requests to walk slowly to achieve the central bank's inflation target of 2%. He said only a bold move that could beat deflation. Price volatility is expected to occur.
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US jolts: Tuesday, 22:00. Labor market figures was supervised by the Fed. This figure gives a broader picture of the US economy. After being at 5:39 in September, in October are expected to be at 5:59.
New Zealand interest rate decision: Thursday, 03:00. Reserve Bank of New Zealand retain the official cash rate at 2.75%, amid concerns over slowing growth in China and East Asia. This time, New Zealand's central bank is expected to cut its interest rate to 2.50% into.
Australian employment data: Thursday, 07:30. Australia's unemployment rate fell unexpectedly became 5.9% in October, to the lowest figure since May, beating the estimate of 6.2%. The labor market adding 58,600 new positions, almost four times more than expected. This time, the labor market is expected to lose 10,000 jobs while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6%.
Swiss interest tigkat decision: Thursday, 15:30. The Swiss central bank continued the policy degree to which negative interest rates at a meeting in September, leaving the interest rate at minus 0.75%. The Swiss central bank seeks to devalue the Swiss franc strong but expect further if deflation due to low oil prices.
England interest rate decision: Thursday, 19:00. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney stated in November that the interest rate will not be raised in the UK before the year is over and most of the policy makers believe that the central bank would wait several months before raising the interest rate.
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US Jobless Claims: Thursday, 20:30. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US last week increased by 9000 becomes 269 000, maintaining a low claims figures for four decades. For this week's jobless claims number is expected to reach 266 000.
US Retail Sales: Friday, 20:30. US retail sales rose 0.1% in October amid unexpected decline in automobile purchases. This time, retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% and core sales rose 0.3%.
US PPI: Friday, 20:30. US producer prices fell in October for the second month, down 0.4% after 0.5% recorded in the previous month. These bad figures show that reduced inflationary pressures that could make the Federal Reserve delay raising interest rates this December. This time, producer prices expected to remain flat.
US consumer sentiment: Friday, 20:30. US consumer confidence rose to 93.1 in November, rising for the second month, a good sign before the holiday season arrives. While economists expected in November will be an increase of only 91.3. In December, consumer sentiment is expected to reach 92.3.
That is the outlook of the major events in the market movers this week. Stay here for a discussion of specific in time respectively.
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Gold and Silver Outlook This Week
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Precious metal experiencing a revival with terdevaluasinya the US dollar against the euro - especially after Draghi ECB decision is not in accordance with market forecasts and only reduce the deposit rate became -0.3% without notifying the expansion of QE.
While the NFP report showed a gain of 211,000 jobs - a little higher than expected. NFP data but this is not enough to impacting bullion trader with the rise of gold and silver has gone before. Will the rally last week is the last month of this continues until this week This week in the calendar will be a precious metal: US jolts, BOE interest rate decision and the SNB, the US PPI, CPI China, US consumer sentiment, China's industrial production, and retail sales.
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After the ECB interest rate decision recently, the EUR / USD rally - a surge of 3% on Thursday last week - and some possibility of an effect on the increase in the price of gold and silver. Also in the weekly scale, the US dollar devalued against the Euro, Aussie Dollar, British Pound, and the Canadian dollar. But then on Friday NFP report appears. The numbers are not too surprising, growth in wages (2.3% year-on-year), an upward revision to the previous month, and an increase in the level of participants.
The days are past, gold and silver tend to react negatively typing the numbers came out better than expected. The linear correlation is -0.45 to -0.48 for silver and gold. But this time no such occurrence. It may be that this is just a speculative movement of the traders bullion - ancient byword saying "buy the rumor, sell the fact". After ECB cuts interest rate lower than expected in the absence of QE expansion and testimony Yellen, most people think the Fed interest rate hike in December is uncertain. However, it might not.
Estimated probability of Fed-watch said interest rate hikes by the Fed still showed a 79% possibility of increase in December - almost unchanged from the previous figure. And a possible increase in the month of March 2016 rose slightly to 92%. There was little change in the estimate of this probability could seriously suggests that the NFP report and testimony Yellen has no effect on bullion traders, which could explain why there is gold and silver rally recently. Whatever the case, this rally does not seem sturdy and can be changed in the future.
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Looking ahead, the focus will be on speed rather than interest rate hikes. Currently, based on Fed-watch and probability calculations, the rate of speed of about 0.84% until the end of 2016 - this takes into account two interest rate hikes in 2016, assumed interest rate hike in December is running.
This week, the main report of the US is retail sales, jolts, PPI and consumer sentiment. If the US economy showed strong growth on the issues of inflation, labor and consumer sales of this, it will give a negative impact on the price of bullion.
In China, CPI and industrial production reports will be released. Taking into account China is an important consumer of the precious metal, the direction of the Chinese economy may also play a secondary role to the direction of gold and silver prices.
As a summary, the last week's ECB interest rate decision and the disappointing NFP report which is in line with expectations. In total, these events move the US dollar along with gold and silver. Bullion price rally could well short and we could see a change of direction, especially if the reports of the US does not disappoint or missed estimates. In the end, taking into account the coming week will be relatively slow - especially when compared to the last week or the week her again - then the market will likely focus on examining the results of last week and analyze what will happen later.
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European Stocks Move Positive Pressure Amid Oil Prices
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European stocks moved higher in trading on Monday (12/07) despite the sharp decline in oil prices weighed on investor sentiment.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index climbed above 1 percent in afternoon trading, with almost all sectors in positive territory while the oil and gas sector fell 2 percent.
The French CAC and German DAX rose respectively 1.3 percent and 1.8 percent, while the London FTSE index rose only 0.2 percent.
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The European market is driven, along with their counterparts in Asia on Monday after strong US jobs data last Friday. However, Asian stocks lost most of their early gains to close mix.
Nonfarm payrolls data showed the US economy created 211,000 jobs in November, beating market expectations. Very likely that the Fed will now assess that the conditions are right for a rate hike in December.
Oil prices are also considered for the European market on Monday as investors digested the latest news coming from OPEC. At a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna on Friday, the 12-member oil producer group, led by Saudi Arabia, decided to maintain unchanged policy to see future market fluctuations, although global oversupply. As a result, the US market opened lower on Monday.
Brent crude fell more than 6 ½ year low during trading, down $ 1 at $ 42, while WTI crude oil slipped below $ 40, down more than 3 percent at $ 38.72 per barrel. The US dollar rose against a basket of currencies, including the Russian ruble, oil pressing European currency.
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Concerns about the prospects of oil makes oil stocks fell lower, with shares of Tullow Oil and Seadrill fell 6 percent or more, while shares of Petrofac, Royal Dutch Shell and Subsea 7 all fell sharply.
Mining stocks also came under pressure, weighed on the FTSE 100 index, with shares of Antofagasta and BHP Billiton both fell over 1 percent. Stake in the Luxembourg-based steel company, Arcelor Mittal fell about 2.5 percent.
Electrolux shares tumbled 14 percent in the opening - making it the worst performer on the index - after it said a deal to buy General Electric appliance business has fallen after GE terminate the agreement $ 3.3 billion. The current stock down nearly 13 percent.
Shares of British outsourcing company, Serco Group fell more than 7 percent after warning that revenue and trading profits will fall next year.
Airbus shares rose more than 3 percent, after the aircraft manufacturer announced that they have ordered more than 1,000 jet aircraft orders between January and November 2015. Similarly, other companies in the industrial sector, including Rolls-Royce, rose 3.3 percent.
Analyst ZATco Research Center estimates the movement of European markets will pay attention to the movement of Wall Street and commodity prices, especially crude oil prices.
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High Lift ECB attitude Sentix Eurozone December
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Market opinion on the economic situation of the Euro area is currently being released by the Sentix for December showed an increase for two consecutive months and even an increase in sentiment highest in 4 months. Improved sentiment was triggered by the ECB's plan to raise its economic stimulus to the economies of member states.
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Investor confidence in the euro zone rose for two consecutive months since last month and from the 1600 survey conducted by the Sentix members consisting of analysts and institutional investors, the investor sentiment index rose to 15.7 in December from 15.1 in November last level.
Of the index, the assessment of current economic situation decreased from the previous month, the index fell 16 index points to 13.5. Meanwhile, the expectations index rose sharply in November from 14.3 in the previous month to 18 index points.
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At its policy meeting last week, the ECB decided to cut deposit rates by 10 basis points to -0.30 percent and announced to extend the timing of stimulus to March 2017 from November 2016.
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Profitable Forex Tutorial This Week
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Forex trading last week was led by an unexpected strengthening of the exchange rate of the Euro after 2 straight weeks previously dropped significantly. 2 weeks attenuation occurs by sentiment planned relaxation of ECB monetary policy. But last week the Euro has strengthened by the latest ECB policy announcement, although not yet determined how many additional stimulus to be provided.
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Technical Analysis The following is a technical analysis this week for some major pair:
EURUSD :
The movement of this pair last week scored the highest weekly gains against the US dollar were the biggest since the last week of April 2015. And this week the pair leads to rise to a level of 1.0944 to 1.0994 levels at the middle bolinger 11 to bolinger on 5 weekly. If it does not reach even through the second level, the pair will be corrected in advance, fell to 1.0760-0.0783 in the middle bolinger 3 and 5 weekly.
AUDUSD :
The movement of this pair last week had gained a weekly basis, and scored the highest weekly gain since the first week of October 2015. And this week predicted the pair will go down towards the 0.7286 level on MA 3 weekly and if it does not penetrate 0.7285 level, then the AUDUSD will go up to the level bolinger above 0.7410 at 5 and 11 weekly. But if it breaks the level of 0.7280, the pair will continue to fall to as low as 0.7241 in the middle bolinger 5 weekly until the 0.7204 level in the middle bolinger 11 and 20 weekly.
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GBPUSD :
Last week the pair managed to score the highest weekly gains against the US dollar after two straight weeks before correction. This week the movement of GBPUSD pair is predicted to move down to the 1.4990 level on bolinger under 5 weekly until levels below 1.4940 on bolinger 11 and 20 weekly if not penetrating the 1.5135 level middle bolinger 5 weekly. But, if the 1.5135 level breaks, then the pair will go back up to the 1.5217 level in the middle of the 11 weekly bolinger.
USDJPY :
Last week the pair had gained a weekly basis after the previous week's correction with a thin volume. But for this week predicted USDJPY moved up to the level of 123.40-123.66 at bolinger on 5 weekly up to the highest position last Friday. If not penetrate that level, then the pair will go back down to below 5 bolinger weekly at the level of 122.55.
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Online Jobs Australia Highest Since July 2012, Newspaper Advertising Contraction
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In October, Australia succeeded in reducing the number of unemployed in the country as a surge in labor additions represent the number of additions at most since March 2012, there were about 58 600 received in the work so that the country's unemployment rate dropped to the lowest since May 2014.
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The number of people working in Australia until the end of last month reached 11.8383 million, which is evident from the increasing number of job advertisements surveyed by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ Group) were reported to the public on Monday (7/12). Since the beginning of 2015 job advertisements in the country continue to rise.
Australia Job Advertisements
From the report of the ANZ Group recorded additional job advertisements in November from October, job advertisements increased 1.3 percent mom. ANZ data reported is the highest rate since July 2012. The number of job advertisements in Australia reached 156 million ads, with details via internet job ads rose 1.4 percent in November, the previous rise of 0.3 percent.
In contrast, the vacancy advertisements in newspapers after a contraction of -4.3% the previous month rose 3 percent.
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If you look at the number of ads on a yearly basis, slower job ads increased from 10.9 percent in November, after 11.1 percent growth registered in October. This amount will teus increases with increasing economic growth.
Last week the RBA did not cut interest rates because the central bank sees Australia's economy is growing, where the ABS report last week showed Australia's Q3 GDP rose 0.9 percent on a quarterly basis compared to 0.3 percent the previous quarter. Likewise, on an annual basis GDP climbed to 2.5 percent in Q2-2015 Q3-2015 after at only 1.9%.
Likewise, employment growth showed steady improvement, which target the unemployed on the verge of 6-6.25% until next year, and the month of October, the unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent, the lowest since May 2014
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Japanese Foreign Exchange Reserves worst since September 2011
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Foreign exchange reserves (foreign exchange reserves) are deposits of foreign currency by central banks and monetary authorities. Deposit is an asset central banks were stored in multiple currency reserves (reserve currency) such as the dollar, euro, or yen and is used to guarantee the obligations that the local currency issued and reserve banks that are stored at the central bank by the government or financial institutions.
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Usually to measure the foreign exchange reserves are considered adequate or not, then used a number of criteria that the magnitude of the ability of foreign reserves to cover imports for at least 3 months.
Japan's Finance Ministry on Monday (7/12) released a monthly report showing that Japan's foreign exchange reserves declined in November. Japan's foreign exchange reserves as of 30 November, reportedly ended at $ 1.23 trillion, down from the previous month was recorded at from $ 1.244 trillion. Meanwhile when compared to November 2014 ago, Japan's foreign exchange reserves last month is still lower because at the end of November 2014 Japan's foreign exchange reserves stood at $ 1.269 trillion. Foreign exchange reserves in November was the lowest since September 2011, when it was $ 1.20 trillion. Can be seen in the image below:
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Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves
In the report written that the foreign currency reserves dropped $ 1.17 trillion and special drawing rights (SDR) decreased to $ 17.8 billion. IMF reserve position was also down $ 9.4 billion, while gold rose by $ 275 million. Other reserve assets moved down by $ 6 million, and assets in foreign currencies other Japan also fell to $ 5.1080 from $ 5.1140 trillion trillion recorded in the previous month.
Until now, China is still the country's largest foreign reserves holder which positions are both followed by Japan. For information only that the country's economy is being natural cherry recession in the third quarter with a GDP growth rate of contraction.
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