Market Dec 2015 No1 : The Exchange Rate Moves Further Consolidation Seek The Foundation For The Rally
Wednesday 9 December 2015
Crude Oil Prices Continue Weakening In Action Short Covering
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Crude oil prices continued weakness at the close of trading on Wednesday morning (12/09), as a result of short covering merchant.
- With the price of Brent crude oil and US crude futures sank below $ 40 per barrel, which reached its lowest level in February 2009 and expand 6 percent drop Monday, likely triggering short covering before the next loss.
- The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) closed down 14 cents, or 0.37 percent, to 37.51 dollars per barrel. For the price of Brent crude, traded, dropped 44 cents to 40.28 dollars per barrel, after hitting a session low at 39.81 dollars per barrel.
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- Gasoline futures were also little changed after earlier falling to a near seven-year lows in New York trading as crude oil selloff extended to a relatively stable at US oil complex.
- Sharp selloff of oil since the summer came after a meeting on Friday the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which failed to provide support support crude oil prices through production cuts.
- OPEC also failed for the first time in decades to approve the production ceiling. Instead, the core members, led by top crude exporter Saudi Arabia, apparently preparing for a new battle for share in a market that is already very oversupply and takes nearly 2 million barrels per day.
- Saudi rival Iran and Iraq have also pledged to boost output and exports next year. Banks like Goldman Sachs said oil could fall to $ 20 per barrel as the world may be running out of storage for crude oil put unwanted. World oil stocks are at a record, according to the International Energy Agency.
- In another indication of the fierce fighting the market, trade sources said Saudi Arabia to send more crude to Asia during the last two months of this year.
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- On the demand side, China is a great need for cheap oil helped to support prices as the government looks to build strategic reserves.
- Chinese crude oil imports during the first 11 months of this year rose 8.7 percent to 6.61 million barrels per day, while the November crude oil imports grew 7.6 percent from the same month last year, according to preliminary data released Tuesday.
- With crude oil prices near record lows, China is seen as a possibility to double the strategic purchase of crude oil in 2016, adding some 70-90000000 barrel strategic petroleum reserve (SPR).
- Analyst ZATco Research Center estimates that oil prices may still experience pressure with sentiment excess world oil supplies and the strengthening dollar with certainty the imminent US interest rate hike this December. The price of oil will be moved through a range of 35.50 to 33.50 Support, if prices turn higher will try to penetrate the resistance range of 39.50 to 41.50.
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Gold Price Decline Suspended
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Topics in the market recently is the drop in the price of crude oil. Nymex crude oil prices had touched the lowest in seven years at $ 37.50 per barrel. Decline in crude oil prices had a negative impact on the raw commodity markets, including precious metals.
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- The price of gold rose from moderate levels are lower to the level traded unchanged in trading Tuesday.
- Precious metals continue to be affected by things outside markets including the US dollar index and crude oil prices.
- The US dollar moved to its lowest in trading on Tuesday, which helped raise the price of gold from daily lows.
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- However, crude oil prices touched to the lowest for seven years and fell below $ 37.00 a barrel on Tuesday, making the precious metal buyers to be very careful to move.
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European Session Yen Still Able to Defeat USD By Q3 GDP data
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Yen exchange rate movements in the middle of the European trading session on Tuesday (8/12) surviving in a position to strengthen against the US dollar after two previous trading day experienced strong pressure. The positive sentiment that still provide power this afternoon from Q3 GDP final data released by the Cabinet Office of Japan.
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- Cabinet Office report today to explain Japan's economic conditions are not so experienced recession after the previous estimate last month indicates contraction. Japan's GDP rose 0.3 percent in the quarter ended in September 2015, higher than the initial estimate of a 0.2 percent contraction in the previous quarter after a 0.1 percent contraction in position.
- Although in the spot market are trying to strengthen the US dollar index against major currencies by the sentiment of data jolts Job Openings tonight, but the sentiment of Japanese Q3 GDP was stronger and make movement of the USDJPY pair retreat on the second day of this week.
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- Yen exchange rate movements in the middle of the European session (10:00:35 GMT) strengthened against the US dollar, USDJPY opened weaker at 123.38 in early trading (0000 GMT), the yen rose 20 pips or 0.2% and the value pair is rolling at 123.18.
- For further trading, analyst ZATco Research Center estimates USDJPY pair will continue to fall to as low as 122.78 on top of the Daily MA20, but if there is a correction can again rise to the level of 123.57 on top of daily BB20.
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Data From ONS Relax Pound The European Session
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Pound exchange rate movements which continued to weaken since the beginning of trading continued the trend of previous trading, increasingly mired in mid European session today (12/08) by the poor data reported British national statistics office this afternoon.
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- The negative sentiment is getting stronger this afternoon when the Official UK National Statistics (ONS) announced manufacturing performance report of the country's natural contraction of manufacturing production data becomes -0.4 per cent in October from September at 0.9 percent.
- In addition to data released far below the previous period are also well below expectations at -0.1 percent decline in the index.
- On the other hand the movement of the dollar index which illustrates the strength of the exchange rate of the dollar against six major rivals showed positive movement seen technically at H1 time frame.
- Sentiment that seeks to lift the value of this exchange came from US economic data will be released tonight and potentially meenunjukkan data is increasing, especially in the indicator jolts Job Openings.
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- Pound exchange rate movements in the European session (10:00:35 GMT) moves the weak against the US dollar, having opened weaker at 1.5056 in early trading (0000 GMT), the GBPUSD pair fell 49 pips or 0.4% and the value of the rolling is at 1, 5007.
- And for subsequent trading, analyst ZATco Research Center estimates pair GBPUSD will get down to support level 1.4960 and if that level breaks, then the pair can rise to the level of 1.5069.
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Japan's Current Account Surplus For 16 Consecutive Months
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Japan's Finance Ministry on Tuesday (8/12) reported that the country's current account surplus still having to October but decreased from a surplus the previous month in September. However on an annual basis, the department reported an increase in current account surplus above 70 percent.
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- Japanese government managed to get surplus from the transaction goes for ¥ 1.45 trillion in October, and in annual terms increased by 7237 percent compared to October last year. In addition to lower than a surplus position in September, position currennt account surplus in October was lower than expectations rise to ¥ 1.5 trillion surplus. This surplus is a surplus for 16 consecutive months.
- AccountBerhasil Current Japan current account surplus in the trade balance surplus was due to ¥ 200.2 billion, which was below estimates of ¥ 202.3 billion, but up sharply from ¥ 82.3 billion in the previous month.
- In that month exports fell 3.7 per cent on an annual basis, while imports fell 16.4 percent. Import most fall of crude oil fell 49.2 percent as the average oil price fell 52.5 percent to $ 47.88 per barrel during the month. The value of liquefied natural gas imports also fell 42.4 percent. So far, Japan has been heavily dependent on energy imports nuclear reactors since the March 2011 nuclear disaster in Fukushima.
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- Meanwhile, the surplus in the balance of primary income, which reflects Japan's income from foreign investment, down 14.4 percent to ¥ 1.73 trillion. This is due to smaller dividend payments received by the company from overseas units.
- For information on the foreign exchange market, the yen was down against the US dollar by 11.1 percent during the year with an average of ¥ 120.06 to the dollar. A weaker yen usually support exports by making products cheaper abroad and raised the value of overseas earnings in yen terms.
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Indicates Sluggish Export weakening Chinese economy
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Chinese exports fell for a fifth consecutive month, while imports also sluggish, encouraged policy makers seek to spur domestic spending amid stronger global demand.
- Exports fell 6.8 percent in November in dollar terms from a year earlier, the Customs Administration of China said on Tuesday (12/8). That compared with the median forecast of a 5 percent drop in a survey of economists and a 6.9 percent decline in October. Imports fell to a record 13 consecutive months, fell 8.7 percent in dollar terms compared to a decline of 18.8 percent in October, leaving a trade surplus of $ 54.1 billion.
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- With the sluggish trading coupled with a slowdown in housing construction, policy makers may need to move quickly even after six interest rate cuts and fiscal spending.
- The trade data were announced after a report last week showed Chinese manufacturing conditions slumped to its lowest level in more than three years. Expected inflation data Wednesday showed consumer prices grew about half as fast as the central bank's target and deflation in producer prices deepened in November.
- "The economy generally weak," said Zhu Qibing, a Beijing-based analyst at China Minzu Securities Co. "Except for consumption, we are unlikely to see an increase in the release of other data this month."
- Exports to the United States, down 5.3 percent from a year earlier, while shipments to the European Union fell 9 percent.
- "Global demand is still weak and overburdened Chinese manufacturing relatively strong currency," Louis Kuijs, head of Asian economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Hong Kong, wrote in an e-mail. Depreciation of the currency against the US dollar, including the euro and yen, has worsened the competitive position of Chinese manufacturing.
- Chinese exports are expected to decline more than 2 percent this year, according to a ZatCo survey, the first annual drop since 2009. Combined with imports slumped, which would mean the trade occurred under the government's annual target of a 6 percent increase this year.
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- Chinese national policy makers are under high pressure to maintain growth target, announced Prime ministerial Li Keqiang, as continued sluggishness in growth engines such as exports, manufacturing and real estate.
- The decline in imports compared with the median forecast for a 11.9 percent decline. Imports from Brazil surged 34.9 percent, reversing a stretch of decline this year.
- A general decline in imports, which is a signal of domestic demand, narrowed. Excluding the major commodities, decreased 9 percent, according to calculations by Nomura Holdings Inc. economists led by Zhao Yang.
- In another sign of increased demand, deliveries of passenger vehicles in China rose at the fastest pace in nine months in November after the government cut taxes to boost sales in the automotive market in the world.
- China increased the volume of imports of iron ore, crude oil and agricultural products while reducing the coal and steel in the first eleven months of the previous year, said the Customs on its website.
- "The decline in exports remains a major obstacle to the economic slowdown, adding pressure on the yuan and increase the likelihood of further easing," said the economists Bloomberg Fielding Chen and Tom Orlik in a note. "The hope is that the global economic recovery in 2016 could extend assistance for the export of China."
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Tin price Depressed Economy Weakening Chinese
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The price of tin on the commodity exchanges Malaysia turned lower on Tuesday's trading session this afternoon (12/08). The price of tin fell depressed weakening of the Chinese economy, the world's largest metals consumer countries.
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- Exports fell 6.8 percent worse than expected on an annual basis, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline.
- While imports fell 8.7 percent at an annual pace. This result indicates the weak economic growth in China. Data last week showed Chinese manufacturing reaching the worst conditions in more than three years.
- This day happened again selling pressure as market participants still see the potential for further price reductions.
- The price of tin on the commodity exchanges Malaysia observed a significant decrease. The industrial metals prices traded at 14,600 dollars per ton, down $ 200 dollars.
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- Analyst ZATco Research Center estimates that the price movement tin Malaysia at the next trade will still have the potential for negative sentiment, good demand is still sluggish US dollar also strengthening the imminent planned increase in US interest rates.
- The price of tin will try to move the support level at 14,400 dollars and 14,200 dollars. But if the rebound will move at the resistance level at position 14,800 dollars and 15,000 dollars.
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Dollar Still Attenuated European Session By Oil Prices
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Dollar exchange rate movements in the European trading session on Tuesday (8/12) is still comfortably in position weakened against major currencies after the previous day's trading managed to keep the rally since the end of last week by Fed rate hikes sentiment. Since the beginning of the Asian trading session today the exchange rate moves further consolidation seek the foundation for the rally but was unable due to the falling crude oil prices overnight.
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- The movement of oil prices on the spot market since the beginning of the post-trading limited mobility dropped to its lowest level in the last six years and in the European session seemed to be moving positively but still away from the opening price earlier in the week. Results OPEC meeting last weekend were not able to decide the ceiling of production and continue the previous ceiling makes crude oil prices fall asleep.
- But this afternoon ahead of the American session, the dollar index which describes the movement of the exchange rate of dollar strength against six major rivals showed positive movement seen technically at H1 time frame. Sentiment that seeks to lift the value of this exchange came from US economic data will be released tonight and potentially meenunjukkan data is increasing, especially in the indicator jolts Job Openings.
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- Monitor the strength of the US dollar exchange rate against other currencies on the US dollar index today (09:30:40 GMT) rolling in the range of 98.55, down from 98.71 opening at 0000 GMT. Technically, Analyst ZATco Resarch Center see the movement of the US dollar index is based on the high price at 98.77 and 98.41 low in the Asian session this evening the index is expected to have resistance in the range of 99.91 and 99.32, while immediate support in the range of 98, 09 and 97.90.
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China Products Donates Largest Deficit For Commerce
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As the US Commerce Department reported last week that the country's trade deficit in October experienced an increase from the previous period by a reduction in exports. The export of goods in an export lowest since June 2011, exports of food lowest since March 2012, while exports of industrial supplies its lowest in five years.
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- American exports fell 1.4 percent to $ 184.1 billion in October from $ 186.8 billion in exports in September. And in terms of imports only fell 0.6 percent to $ 228.0 billion in October from $ 229.2 billion in September.
United States Exports
- Judging from export destination countries, countries that experienced a decline in exports as China, the European Union, Germany and Japan. Against this deficit with its trading partners is increasing, the article actually increased imports from countries above.
- The ballooning US trade deficit in October is much contributed by the increase in the trade deficit with countries such countries, where the details of the Chinese formed deficit (a deficit of $ 30.2), European Union (deficit $ 13.3), Mexico (deficit of $ 6.3), Germany (deficit of $ 6.2), Japan (a deficit of $ 5.3), Italy (a deficit of $ 2.3), South Korea (a deficit of $ 2.3), India ($ 2.0 deficit), France (deficit of $ 1.7), Canada (deficit of $ 0.2 ), Brazil (a deficit of $ 0.2).
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- US Department of Commerce trade deficit rose to $ 43.9 billion in October from $ 42.5 billion in September. Whereas previously the trade deficit of the country the world's largest economy is expected to decrease to $ 40.6 billion.
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Japan's Current Account Surplus For 16 Consecutive Months
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Japan's Finance Ministry on Tuesday (8/12) reported that the country's current account surplus still having to October but decreased from a surplus the previous month in September. However on an annual basis, the department reported an increase in current account surplus above 70 percent.
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- Japanese government managed to get surplus from the transaction goes for ¥ 1.45 trillion in October, and in annual terms increased by 7237 percent compared to October last year.
In addition to lower than a surplus position in September, position currennt account surplus in October was lower than expectations rise to ¥ 1.5 trillion surplus.
This surplus is a surplus for 16 consecutive months.
- AccountBerhasil Current Japan current account surplus in the trade balance surplus was due to ¥ 200.2 billion, which was below estimates of ¥ 202.3 billion, but up sharply from ¥ 82.3 billion in the previous month.
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- In that month exports fell 3.7 per cent on an annual basis, while imports fell 16.4 percent. Import most fall of crude oil fell 49.2 percent as the average oil price fell 52.5 percent to $ 47.88 per barrel during the month.
- The value of liquefied natural gas imports also fell 42.4 percent. So far, Japan has been heavily dependent on energy imports nuclear reactors since the March 2011 nuclear disaster in Fukushima.
- Meanwhile, the surplus in the balance of primary income, which reflects Japan's income from foreign investment, down 14.4 percent to ¥ 1.73 trillion. This is due to smaller dividend payments received by the company from overseas units.
- For information on the foreign exchange market, the yen was down against the US dollar by 11.1 percent during the year with an average of ¥ 120.06 to the dollar. A weaker yen usually support exports by making products cheaper abroad and raised the value of overseas earnings in yen terms.
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