Digest Dec 2015 No5 : Preview: Initial US Jobless Claims
- The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US last week increased by 9000 becomes 269 000, maintaining a low claims figures for four decades. There are fewer layoffs and sensitivity to security work, make become stronger consumer spending during the holiday season. Claims four-week average dropped to 269 250 from 271 000 in the previous week.
- The main employment last release ahead of the Fed announcement will be widely read as a hint the other to decide whether the central bank will raise interest rates on December 16.
- The increase in nonfarm payrolls in November last week by the Fed certainly has provided additional support to tighten monetary policy. The US economy has added 211,000 workers solidly last month, marking the second consecutive month above the 200,000 level.
- But two indicators of broader employment, published this week shows that the trend in job creation softer than it looks in payrolls. Labour Market Conditions Index from the Fed remained in positive territory in the last month, but just barely, slipping to its lowest level in seven months.
- On the other hand, the Conference Board reported that its Employment Trends Index multifactor suffered its biggest monthly drop in November since the Great Depression. Attenuation is demonstrated to be cautious in extrapolating the trend of job growth now.
- Jobless claims report in the evening will give more context to decide whether the trend in employment growth is weaker than indicated by recent data update. However, based on expectations of the public release of the data this evening will still be on track to support an optimistic outlook on the labor market.
ZATco estimate the number of jobless claims will reach 266 000.
- While consensus estimates unemployment claims remain attached to the 269 000 new submissions for the second month in a row. This projection is closer to a multi-decade low of 255,000 reached in July last.
- Apabila tidak ada kejutan kenaikan yang besar, update data pada malam hari ini sedang berada pada jalur yang bertindak mengcounter angka-angka yang memprihatinkan sebelumnya didalam menganalisa outlook pasar tenaga kerja.
Crude Oil Prices Continue Weakening, Depressed Strengthening US Dollar
-
Crude oil prices fell back at the close of trade on Friday morning (11/12) pressured by a stronger US dollar. Oil prices had also weakened with investors ignoring a drop in US crude inventories to refocus on global supply glut of crude oil.
-
- The dollar rose for the first time in three days, making dollar-denominated commodities less affordable for the euro and other currencies.
- The price of Brent crude oil futures and US crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached the lowest prices in February 2009 for the fourth day in a row as a continuation of the impact of the OPEC meeting last week that failed to provide price support.
- In its latest monthly report on Thursday, OPEC predicted that oil supplies from countries outside the OPEC group, including the United States and Russia, will fall by 380,000 barrels per day (bpd) next year, three times more than expected previously.
- Even so, OPEC left its forecast for world oil demand in 2016 unchanged at 1.25 million barrels per day. It said OPEC group expenditure increased from 230,000 barrels per day in November to 31.7 million barrels per day.
-
- The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) closed down 40 cents, or 1.08 percent, to 36.76 dollars a barrel, its lowest close since 2009.
- For the price of Brent crude fell 39 cents to 39.72 dollars per barrel, nearly seven years at the lowest price 39.50 dollars per barrel.
- Analyst ZATco Research Center estimates that oil prices may still experience pressure with sentiment excess world oil supplies and the strengthening dollar with certainty the imminent US interest rate hike this December. The price of oil will be moved through a range of 35.00 to 33.00 Support, if prices turn higher will try to penetrate the resistance range of 39.00 to 41.00.
support by ZATco & 20News
Gold Weakens As A stronger US dollar
-
Gold slightly declined in US trading Thursday morning and experienced selling pressure caused in part by a solid rebound in the US dollar index after the big losses that occurred on Wednesday. Graphical form an overall bearish for gold and silver market also makes the seller confidence.
-
- February Comex gold was last down $ 3.50 at $ 1.073 per ounce. Comex silver last down $ 0024 at $ 14,165 per ounce.
- The stock market traded in a narrow range on Thursday, but the tone of the nervous traders and investors look to the raw commodity sector which slipped, led by crude oil prices this week touched its lowest in seven years. Traders looked raw commodity sector which is at the low cycle like this, the world economy as a whole could not be in a good condition. Raw commodities slump sparked serious concern will be price deflation gripped the world economy in the future.
-
- World Gold Council report said the Central Bank of Russia and China continue to buy gold at lower prices to stock up their inventory.
- Wall Street Journal in a report said the market saw 85% chance the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rate of 0.25% at the FOMC meeting next week, which would be the first interest rate hike for about 9 years.
support by ZATco & 20News
Strengthening of the US Dollar The US Session Goes Ahead
-
Dollar exchange rate movements in early European trading session on Tuesday (8/12) further strengthen the gains were trying to cut a sharp slowdown in two consecutive trading days prior to the drop in oil prices.
-
- Although the price of crude oil on the spot market of the European session observed moving back negative and touched a record worst prices of these commodities, US dollar exchange rate drove optimistic. Sentiments that encourage the strengthening exchange rate of the key global currency will be supported by the US weekly jobless claims data.
- This afternoon the movement of the dollar index which illustrates the strength of the exchange rate of the dollar against six major rivals showed positive movement ahead of the jobless claims data are expected to show a decrease in the data of the previous period.
-
Monitor the strength of the US dollar exchange rate against other currencies on the US dollar index today (10:30:40 GMT) rolling in the range of 97.84, down from 97.34 opening at 0000 GMT. Technically, Analyst ZATco Resarch Center see the movement of the US dollar index is based on the high price at 97.88 and the low at 97.31 earlier, the index is expected to have resistance in the range of 98.09 and 98.60, while immediate support in the range of 97.07 and 96 70.
support by ZATco & 20News
Pound exchange rate Thin European Session Gains Ahead of BOE Rate
-
Weakening pound exchange rate movements since the beginning of trading before correcting the trade trend, managed to bounce back in the middle of the European session today (12/08) awaits the results of the central bank's policy board meeting the UK will be announced tonight.
-
- Strengthening this afternoon GBPUSD pair managed to ignore the growing strength of the negative sentiment this afternoon from foreign trade data are reported to experience swelling largest trade deficit in the last 3 months.
- Tonight, the leadership of the UK central bank will announce its latest monetary policy in the end of this year. Previously reported BOE will raise interest rates next year, but time allows.
- In terms of the movement of the US dollar index trading this afternoon observed the stronger of the start of trading by positive sentiment from the US penagngguran weekly claims data will be released to decrease the data from the previous period.
-
- Pound exchange rate movements in the European session (10:00:35 GMT) strong move slightly against the US dollar, having opened weaker at 1.5182 in early trading (0000 GMT), the GBPUSD pair up 3 pips or 0.01% and the value of the rolling is at 1 , 5179.
- And for subsequent trading, analyst ZATco Research Center estimates pair GBPUSD will get down to support level 1.4939 and if that level breaks, then the pair can rise to the level of 1.5247.
support by ZATco & 20News
France Refine defeat deflation Euro European Session December 10
-
The euro weakened exchange rate movements since the beginning of trading before correcting the trade trend, increasingly mired in mid European session today (10/12) by selling pressure after the French negative economic reports this afternoon.
-
- The most debilitating economic data movement of the pair this afternoon is a level data French consumer prices in November dropped to zero percent on an annual basis, but on a monthly basis the natural deflation of -0.2 per cent.
- In terms of the movement of the US dollar index trading this afternoon observed the stronger of the start of trading by positive sentiment from the US penagngguran weekly claims data will be released to decrease the data from the previous period.
- Euro exchange rate movements in the European session (10:00:35 GMT) moved down against the US dollar, having opened weaker at 1.1026 in early trading (0000 GMT), the exchange rate of Euro fell 82 pips or 0.8% and the value of the rolling is at 1.0944.
-
- For further trade until the close of trading American session ends tomorrow morning, analyst ZATco Research Center estimates that the EURUSD pair continues to fall to the next support range 1.0818 but if the dollar down, the pair can rise back to 1.1086 resistance position.
support by ZATco & 20News
Deflation Back Shadowing French Economy
-
French country governments have recently reported the level of French household spending fell for the first time in seven months in October the impact of the economic downturn experienced by the country, reported the country's consumer price level in November last.
-
- INSEE reported French inflation rate in November remained stable zero position after the previous month experienced improvement with a 0.1 percent rise on an annual basis. However, on a monthly basis the French inflation rate of -0.2 percent contraction alias deflation after the previous month's 0.1% rise in position.
- Noted that the reduction in transport fares and food costs and a decline in crude oil prices continue to be a major contribution to the decline in CPI in November.
- In the annual increase in costs occurred in prices for food (0.8 percent), fresh food (5.4 percent), tobacco (0.3 percent), other manufactured products (0.3 percent), the cost of rent (0.8 percent), medical care (0.2 percent), transport and communication services tariffs (0.2 percent).
- And the price reduction occurs in petroleum products (-11.9 percent), medical products (-4.1 percent) and clothing and footwear (-0.5 percent).
-
- France today is a country that occupies the fifth position for a world economic power. Which France realize 5 percent of GDP and 6 percent of world trade. Not only that, France is also the world's first country to luxury goods industry, ranked second in the world and the first European to agriculture, ranked third in the world for industrial productivity.
- With a myriad of such ratings, the French economic growth in Q3 and managed to survive in a stagnant position even though the world economy is volatile. Although until now still mixed economic performance, it is unlikely to create businesses in this country to be pessimistic.
support by ZATco & 20News
South Korean government effort Grow Economy in 2016
-
Economic growth in South Korea who managed to rise in the third quarter last period of economic decline during the past 4 quarters. Of South Korea's central bank reported last week that the country's economy increases with GDP rising 2.7% from 2.2% the previous quarter.
-
- However, despite an increase in South Korean government is very serious to improve the economic returns that have been cut over the last four quarters. And as the monetary measures, the government has allocated about 70 percent to support the economy accelerated in 2016.
- In a statement after the government set next year's budget, as quoted by local media, the South Korean government allocated ₩ 224.8 trillion, or 68 percent of ₩ 330.6 trillion budget throughout the year to support the economic recovery of the country.
- From the state budget that has been set on Tuesday (8/12), about 40 percent of the budget is absorbed in the first quarter. The most priority project of the government at the beginning of knowledge, namely infrastructure projects, which the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport has allocated a budget in advance for 87 projects such as the construction of a highway between Sangju and Yeongdeok in North Gyeongsang Province.
-
- Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Hugo will spend the budget on port projects, including building a sea wall in the Port of New Ulsan. Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs will absorb the budget to combat drought, while the Ministry of Labor and Employment will absorb to support job seekers find work.
- What did the South Korean government is almost the same as the government Jokowi lift economic growth to a variety of infrastructure projects as optimizing the uptake of the existing budget.
support by ZATco & 20News
UK Trade Deficit Worst hit Within 3 Months
-
Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Thursday afternoon (10/12) reported the foreign trade performance which again scored an even trade deficit in October last period reported the worst trade in 3 months by increasing imports.
-
- British royal country's trade deficit in October more swollen than the previous month to GBP4,14 billion in October 2015 from GBP1,07 billion due to a surge in imports while exports fell. And if the calculated amount of the trade deficit excluding oil and gas, the deficit in October was the highest since records began in 1998.
United Kingdom Balance of Trade
- As causes of the deficit increase, total imports rose 5.4 percent from a month earlier to GBP46,32 billion. GBP 2.3 billion of the increase was due to the import of goods, especially imports of machinery and transport equipment (GBP 0.9 billion), chemicals (GBP 0.5 billion) and fuel (up to GBP 0.5 billion).
- While the total exports shrank 1.6 percent to GBP 42.18 billion, driven by a decline in exports of goods, particularly chemicals, which decreased by GBP 0.8 billion. The trade deficit of goods amounted GBP11,8 billion in the month of October 2015 were more swollen from September 2015 GBP 3.0 billion.
-
- Imports of goods from EU countries and non-EU each rose by GBP 1.2 billion between September and October, triggered by an increase in imports of machinery and transport equipment (up GBP 0.6 billion) and chemicals (up GBP 0.3 billion).
- Exports to countries outside the EU decreased by GBP 0.9 billion (6.6 percent), primarily reflecting a decrease GBP0,7 billion in exports of chemicals. while exports to the EU rose GBP 0.2 billion (1.4 percent).
support by ZATco & 20News
Employment Australian Crackdown Print Record Unemployment
-
Increased job advertisements in Australia in November last by ANZ survey demonstrated progress by national statistical offices ABS report this morning (10/12), which announced the addition amount of labor significantly.
-
- In November, Australia succeeded in reducing the number of unemployed in the country of up to 33 400 people that the country's unemployment rate fell to the lowest position since May 2014. The decline in unemployment by increasing labor support received in that month.
- The amount of additional employment in Australia in November an additional amount of at most since July 2000, there were about 71 400 received in the job. So the number of people working in Australia until the end of last month reached 11.9006 million, while the number of unemployed decreased to 739 100 people.
- From national statistics bureau report this morning, Australia's unemployment rate dropped sharply to 5.8 percent in November 2015, the lowest figure since May 2014, from 5.9 percent in the previous month. While the labor force participation rate increased to 65.3 percent from 65.0 percent in October.
-
Australia Unemployment Rate
- Of the amount of work now, 8.2058 million fulltime while the rest work part time, more labor in November to work fulltime as many as 41 thousand people are adding to part time as many as 29,700 to 3.6948 million.
- For the kind seen a decline in unemployment, the number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work fell 9400 to 517 400 and the number of people who are unemployed are just looking for a part time job declined to 221 700 6600.
- Judging from the territory itself, in New South Wales, the unemployment rate fell to 5.5% in October from 5.8% in September. In Victoria, decreased to 5.6% from 6.3%. In Western Australia, the unemployment rate rose to 6.4% from 6.1%.
support by ZATco & 20News
Causes less productive Industry in Malaysia
-
Department of Statistics Malaysia on Thursday (10/12) reported the performance of the country's industrial production growth rate for the period ending in October 2015. In the release noted that the levels of Malaysian industrial output slumped sharply in the month from the previous month. A weaker Malaysian currency exchange rates over recent months become the main cause, especially in the mining sector.
-
- Noted that the levels of Malaysian industrial production last October only able posted a growth of 4.2 percent (yoy), after successfully posted a surge in the increase of 5.1 percent (yoy) in September. Keep in mind, the actual output level is still below the median estimate of economists had forecast a gain of 5.5 percent. Can be seen in the image below:
Malaysia Industrial Production
- Overall, Malaysia's annual output growth rate in October was supported by growth in output in the manufacturing sector, which reached 6.2 percent and electricity output growth of 4.3 percent, while mining output was still posted a decline of 1.4 percent. For information, industrial production also fell 0.4 percent in October on a monthly basis.
-
- In a separate report, the neighboring country's statistics office announced that the value of manufacturing sales rose 6.5 per cent on an annual basis to MYR 58.6 billion in October from MYR 55.1 billion in the same month the previous year.
- However, on a monthly basis, the value of manufacturing sales rose 0.3 percent, while the previous month fell slightly by 0.01 percent. In addition it also reported average wages and salaries paid per employee in October increased by 7.8 percent annually and 0.9 percent from the previous month.
support by ZATco & 20News
Like this article ? Come Share :
