Market : Asia Markets Seriously Under Pressure (Jan 2016 No1) ~ DIGESTTODAY.BLOGSPOT.COM

Saturday 23 January 2016

Japan Mr Tri Utomo predict that the next movement in the Nikkei index will be limited to responding to potentially weaken the unfavorable development of the domestic economy, China's economic concerns and potential weakening crude oil prices. Technically Nikkei index will move within the range of 15.663 to 15.134 Support and Resistance range from 16.617 to 17.111.

Korea Mr Tri Utomo estimate the Kospi index fell unlimited potential slowdown in China also responds to concerns of potential decline in crude oil prices, as well as the absence of strong fundamentals that strengthen the domestic economy. The Kospi index is expected to move within the range of 221.94-218.83 Support and Resistance range 227.58-230.49.

China Mr Tri Utomo estimates at the next trade limited the Shanghai index will weaken China's depressed economic slowdown concerns and are still awaited the proper stimulus from the Chinese government to strengthen the economy. The index will move in the range 2680-2494 Support through the level and if the rose will try to penetrate the resistance level at 3053 to 3203.

Hongkong Mr Tri Utomo estimate that the movement of the Hang Seng index fell further still limited potential to respond to concerns of the domestic economy and China as well as crude oil. The Hang Seng Index is expected to move in the range of 18208-17702 Support and Resistance range 19221-19728.

USA Mr Tri Utomo expects Wall Street will move higher if the data is realized rise housing. But keep in mind the movement of crude oil prices and the economic development of China, which, if weaker, will depress Wall Street.

Japanese Stocks Decline After closing, eroded Various Negative Sentiment

At the end of the Japanese stock market trading on Thursday (21/01), the Nikkei index back end slipped, fell sharply -398.93 points, or -2.43 percent, at 16,017.26. A weaker Nikkei eroded various negative sentiment.
On this afternoon released the data indicator of the Japanese economy is the All Industry Activity Index (MoM) in November, which recorded the results of -1.0%, down from economists' expectations at -0.7%, and fell away from the previous 1.0%.
This index measures the monthly change in overall production by all sectors of the Japanese economy. The index is linked to Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) and overall growth rates.
Another negative sentiment came from the Commerce Department report of China, where Japanese investment in China fell 25.2% to $ 3.21 billion in 2015, showed that an increase in the bilateral relations has not offset the impact of economic decline and increasing labor costs. The cause of the decline of Japanese investment largely due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy.
Likewise weakening crude oil presses Japanese stocks. In Asian trading, crude oil is under pressure in the late afternoon when the price of crude oil futures West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in March, fell 0.60 percent to $ 28.18 a barrel, while Brent crude futures traded globally down 0.32 percent at $ 27.79. During the US session this morning, the price of WTI oil for February delivery slid to $ 26.55 and Brent futures, also for delivery in February, fell to $ 27.87 per barrel.
Depress oil prices declining oil stocks. Japanese shares fell 1.34 percent Inpex and Japan Petroleum shares closed lower by 1.69 percent.
Meanwhile, the dollar-yen pair fell to 116.75. The strengthening yen is negative for exporters because it means lower revenue when converted back into local currency. Japanese exporter stocks closed mostly lower, with Honda shares fell 4.62 percent.
Sharp shares ended down 5.79 percent after initially jumped as much as 14.05 percent following a Wall Street Journal report that the Taiwanese manufacturer Hon Hai Precision Industry, also known as Foxconn, has been offering electronic maker of ¥ 625 billion ($ 5.3 billion) to take over the troubled company. Taiwan stock listed Hon Hai fell 0.55 percent.
As for Nikkei index futures also tracked down -210 points or -1.31% at 15.790, down from the previous trading at 16.020.
Mr Tri Utomo predict that the next movement in the Nikkei index will be limited to responding to potentially weaken the unfavorable development of the domestic economy, China's economic concerns and potential weakening crude oil prices. Technically Nikkei index will move within the range of 15.663 to 15.134 Support and Resistance range from 16.617 to 17.111.

Korea Exchange Ends Depressed Economy Slowing China

At the close of trading on the stock exchange South Korea on Thursday (21/01), the Kospi index closed down -4.92 points, or -0.27 percent, at 1840.53. Weakening the Kospi depressed performance concerns China's economic slowdown.
South Korea, which relies heavily on exports for economic growth driver, has been hit hard by the slowdown in China and weakening global demand. Exports fell 7.9 percent, the monthly figure they posted negative growth over the past year.
The South Korean government will make all efforts to revitalize the economy by creating jobs, finding new growth engines and revive domestic demand and exports, the country's top economic policymaker said on Thursday.
"Economic growth in China slowed to a wide range of 6 percent last year, and the International Monetary Fund are revising down forecasts for world economic growth," said Finance Minister Yoo Il-ho in a meeting with economy-related ministers in Seoul. "There are no signs of recovering it in the near future." He said the government is aware of this challenge and will do its best to push forward structural reforms and economic renovation.
Earlier this week, the IMF lowered its forecast for global growth this year by 0.2 percentage points to 3.4 percent, citing the economic turmoil in China and financial uncertainty throughout the emerging markets stemming from low oil prices. China's economy grew 6.9 percent last year, marking the lowest growth rate in more than 25 years. The IMF expects China's growth to fall further to around 6.3 percent this year.
In October, the Bank of Korea revised its growth forecast for the country's fourth-largest economy in Asia in 2016 to 3.2 percent from 3.3 percent. BOK Governor Lee Ju-Yeol have recently expressed the need for revisions to the downside risks for the economy.
At the close of stock trading this afternoon, shares pressing Kospi index is Bukwang Pharmaceutical stocks were down -14.15%, Samyang shares fell 013.33%, Comtec Systems shares fell -9.2%, shares of Korea Cast Iron Pipe Ind down -8.04%, INF shares fell -7.56%.
As for the futures Kospi index was observed up 1.20 points or 0.54% at 224.90 positions, up from its previous close at 223.70.
Mr Tri Utomo estimate the Kospi index fell unlimited potential slowdown in China also responds to concerns of potential decline in crude oil prices, as well as the absence of strong fundamentals that strengthen the domestic economy. The Kospi index is expected to move within the range of 221.94-218.83 Support and Resistance range 227.58-230.49.

Shanghai Index Ends Negative, Market Still Looking forward Stimulus Right

At the close of trading on China's stock markets on Thursday (21/01), the Shanghai index ended negative, down -95.89 points, or -3.22 percent, to 2880.80. Weakening the Shanghai index suppressed fears of Chinese economic slowdown and investors are still looking at the right stimulus by the Beijing government to strengthen the economy.
On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast for the third time in one year, this time to 3.4 percent for this year, said the government should take steps to increase demand.
The IMF said slower growth in emerging markets, especially in China, falling commodity prices, and rising interest rates in the US as a potential risk to global growth.
It said growth in China's second-largest economy in the world, will slow to 6.3 percent this year and 6 percent next year. Earlier in the day, China reported growth in 2015 at 6.9 percent, down from 7.3 percent in 2014.
The People's Bank of China to inject 40 billion yuan into the financial system on Thursday through reverse repurchase agreements (reverse repo), continuing the previous step to reduce seasonal liquidity pressures ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday.
PBOC offered 11 billion yuan worth of seven-day reverse repos, at an interest rate of 2.25 percent, and 29 billion yuan worth of 28-day reverse repos, with an interest rate of 2.6 percent, in open market operations, the central bank said on its website.

This movement brings the PBOC did net injection of 315 billion yuan of funds this week.

On Tuesday, China's central bank also added 150 billion yuan of liquidity through the standing lending facility (SLF), short-term borrowing instrument.
PBOC injects funds usually to relieve seasonal cash crisis before the Lunar New Year holiday during the week of China, which began February 8 this year.
At the close of stock trading this afternoon, shares Brokers and Banks slipped, with shares of Citic Securities fell 4.17 percent, Bank of China fell 1.15 percent and China Construction Bank fell 1.18 percent.
Mr Tri Utomo estimates at the next trade limited the Shanghai index will weaken China's depressed economic slowdown concerns and are still awaited the proper stimulus from the Chinese government to strengthen the economy. The index will move in the range 2680-2494 Support through the level and if the rose will try to penetrate the resistance level at 3053 to 3203.

Hong Kong Ends eroded exit Worry Funds Flow and Chinese Economy

At the close of trading on Thursday (21/01), the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closed sharply lower exchange -344.15 points, or -1.82 percent, at 18,542.15. Decline in the Hang Seng index distressed outflows and concerns over economic slowdown and China.
The Hang Seng Index slumped 1.8 percent at the close, making the ratio of the price of books under one. Last traded below that level, when the Asian financial crisis that has shaken the region's market and property bubble burst. Hong Kong dollar traded near its lowest level since August 2007, while the benchmark money market rates surged to its highest level since May 2009.
Money flowing out of Hong Kong, one of the most open economies in the world, because China's growth slowed to the weakest pace since 1990 and speculators bet on the currency ended the city against the dollar. Capital outflows leading to higher benchmark interest rates, heightening concerns that higher funding costs will weigh on the banking and real estate industries of the city.
The Hang Seng Index has dropped 15 percent this year, while Hong Kong dollar slumped to their lowest levels this century on Wednesday. More than half of the shares with 50 members trading at book price ratio below one, with New World Development Co. and Wharf Holdings Co for less than 0.4 times the value of their net assets, data compiled by Bloomberg. Centaline Property Agency Ltd. secondary measure house prices have slumped almost 9 percent from its September record.
Mr Tri Utomo expect earnings per share for the Hang Seng Index fell 11 percent in the next 12 months, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
At the close of stock trading this afternoon, stocks that suppress the stock exchanges of Hong Kong is China Resources Beer Holdings Company Ltd which fell -14.11, shares of Henderson Land Development Co Ltd fell -6.10%, China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. down -4.84%, shares of New World Development Co Ltd fell -4.39%, Hang Lung Properties Ltd shares fell -4.26%.
While the movement of the Hang Seng index futures tracked down -126 points or -0.67% at 18,625.00, down from the previous closing at 18,751.00.
Mr Tri Utomo estimate that the movement of the Hang Seng index fell further still limited potential to respond to concerns of the domestic economy and China as well as crude oil. The Hang Seng Index is expected to move in the range of 18208-17702 Support and Resistance range 19221-19728.

Wall Street Ends Up With Crude Oil Recovery and ECB Stimulus Hopes

Stocks on Wall Street ended higher at the close of trade on Friday (01/22) recovery pushed oil prices and expectations of stimulus from the European Central Bank.
Nasdaq profit of 0.01 percent after rising more than 1 percent, while the Dow Jones index closed up about 115 points after earlier rising more than 250 points. The S & P 500 closed about half a percent higher, above the intraday low in August 1867. The Russell 2000 index ended slightly lower, while the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) fell more than 2 percent. Recovery in both assets Wednesday afternoon to help lead the recovery end of the session.
Until the close Thursday, major US indices are on pace for a weekly decline slightly but fell about 8.5 percent or more for an annual rate so far and more than 10 percent below the 52-week intraday highs them, in the area of corrections.
US crude oil prices rose briefly to $ 30 per barrel before settling at $ 29.53, up $ 1.18, or 4.16 percent, for the biggest one-day rise since October.
Oil continues to hold near lows not seen since 2003. The weekly oil inventories showed crude oil stocks and a build in US gasoline stocks. Distillate stocks showed a slight decline.
Data released Wednesday by the American Petroleum Institute showed crude inventories rose 4.6 million barrels, while EIA reported commercial crude oil inventories increased by about 4 million barrels. Crude inventories rose to the highest level since 1990.
US stock index futures rose on Thursday morning, the statement of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi that the downside risks have increased again and the central bank need to review, may reconsider the policy stance at its next meeting. Draghi also said the central bank has the strength, will and determination to act, noting has many instruments, according to Dow Jones.
The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet next Tuesday and Wednesday. US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen will speak on monetary policy and the economy before the Senate Banking Committee meeting on February 11 and before the House Financial Services Committee on February 10 to report semi-annual monetary policy of the US central bank, as stated by Reuters on Thursday.
In US economic data, weekly jobless claims came in 293,000, the highest six months. January Philadelphia Fed Index showed minus 3.5.
Treasury yields mixed, with the 2-year yield is lower near 0.82 percent and 10-year yield around 2.03 percent higher.
The US dollar index last slightly lower against major currencies, with the yen at ¥ 117.75 against the dollar. The euro traded below $ 1.09 after falling briefly below $ 1.08 after Draghi's comments.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 115.94 points, or 0.74 percent, at 15,882.68, with the highest increase in Verizon shares, while Goldman Sachs biggest loss.
Transport Dow index closed nearly 1 percent higher.
The S & P 500 closed up 9.66 points, or 0.52 percent, at 1,868.99, with the energy sector leading the seven sectors are higher and the financial and health care sectors are declining. While the utilities sector closed flat.
The Nasdaq index closed up 0.37 points, or 0.01 percent, at 4,472.06.
Today will be released US economic indicator data that Existing Home Sales both monthly and annual basis, which is indicated by the results of the consensus will rise.
Mr Tri Utomo expects Wall Street will move higher if the data is realized rise housing. But keep in mind the movement of crude oil prices and the economic development of China, which, if weaker, will depress Wall Street.