Market : Oversupply Oil Fears of reduced demand from China Dragging the Gold Price(Jan 2016 No2)
- Gold prices Mr Tri Utomo expects gold prices are still depressed strengthening US dollar which will respond to the data home sales will be released tonight which indicated positive. The price of gold will penetrate the support level in the range of $ 1,098- $ 1.096. But if it turns rebounds through the level of $ 1,102- $ 1.104 Resistance.
- Oil prices Mr Tri Utomo expects the price of oil is still potentially under pressure with sentiment oversupply of crude oil and exports of Iran. Oil prices will move in the range Support $ 29,00- $ 28.50 per barrel, and a resistance range of $ 30,00- $ 30.50 per barrel.
- Gold Mr Tri Utomo in summary, the price of gold suffered moderate sales due to a correction of the previous gains. However, there are still concerns on the risk in the market on the day we yesterday, still will limit selling pressure on gold's safe haven.
- Crude oil Mr Tri Utomo expects the price of crude oil will drop if the data is realized crude oil inventories increased, plus the addition of Iran's exports, increased the global supply glut. Oil prices will move in the range Support $ 26,00- $ 25.50 per barrel, and a resistance range of $ 27,00- $ 27.50 per barrel.
- WTI Mr Tri Utomo expects the price of oil is still potentially under pressure with sentiment oversupply of crude oil and exports of Iran. Oil prices will move in the range Support $ 28,00- $ 27.50 per barrel, and a resistance range of $ 29,00- $ 29.50 per barrel.
Gold Price Down Easter ECB Meeting Results
- Gold prices fell at the close of trade on Friday (22/01) after posting its biggest one-day rise in two weeks the previous day, as a hint of further stimulus from the European Central Bank pressured the euro and global stocks rebound in risk aversion hold.
- The turmoil in financial markets and concerns over China and other emerging markets will prompt a review of monetary policy March ECB President Mario Draghi said after the meeting, which held out the prospect of further easing.
- Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $ 1,099.70 per ounce after earlier falling 0.8 percent to $ 1,092.15. This occurs because the US dollar turned lower.
- While the price of US gold futures for February delivery fell 0.7 percent to settle at $ 1,099.20 per ounce.
- The price of oil and global equity markets rebound, after a turbulent few days that wiped out trillions of dollars of asset value, although it is unclear whether the strong selling action has ended.
The dollar rose to the strongest against the euro in two weeks on Draghi's comments.
- Physical gold demand in Asia slowed this week as prices rose, limiting seasonal purchases in China ahead of major holidays and forcing sellers in India to offer a discount.
- Among other precious metals, platinum prices rose 0.05 percent at $ 818.40 an ounce, after falling to the lowest level in seven years at $ 806.31. Palladium prices rose 0.9 percent at $ 497.30 per ounce and silver fell 0.4 percent to $ 14.11.
- Mr Tri Utomo expects gold prices are still depressed strengthening US dollar which will respond to the data home sales will be released tonight which indicated positive. The price of gold will penetrate the support level in the range of $ 1,098- $ 1.096. But if it turns rebounds through the level of $ 1,102- $ 1.104 Resistance.
Crude oil prices rebound
- Crude oil prices rebounded more than $ 1 per barrel from 12-year lows at the close Trafficking Friday (21/01), posted its biggest daily rise this year due to the financial market rally gives some reason bearish traders to take profits on short positions.
- WTI crude oil futures prices closed up 4.16 percent, or $ 1.18, at $ 29.53 per barrel. Prices had jumped back to $ 30 as expectations for easier monetary policy from Europe sparked a recovery in European and US stock markets.
- Meanwhile, Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, rose $ 1.42, or 5.1 percent, at $ 29.31 per barrel. But Brent has lost more than 25 percent of its value in January and was on track for its biggest monthly decline since 2008.
- Gains accelerated after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that national crude oil inventories rose 4 million barrels, more than expected 2.8 million barrel. However, traders were encouraged that the inventory data at the delivery point Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by only 191,000 barrels, less than previously feared.
- Price does not falter on US data showed a bigger-than-expected rise in crude inventories and record gasoline. Instead, the report triggered buying among traders who feared the numbers could be worse.
- However, some traders expect a quick recovery from the slump 20 percent this year, with oil under pressure from a glut of supply that are more substantial and signs of economic weakness in China.
- Stock market rally Thursday came after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said it would be necessary to review the monetary policy of the Bank in March, fueling hopes for quantitative easing.
- The return of Iran to the oil market this month has added to concerns, after the lifting of international sanctions.
- Show glut can grow further, Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi told Reuters stated the southern region of the country plans to increase production to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year to more than 4 million barrels per day.
- Mr Tri Utomo expects the price of oil is still potentially under pressure with sentiment oversupply of crude oil and exports of Iran. Oil prices will move in the range Support $ 29,00- $ 28.50 per barrel, and a resistance range of $ 30,00- $ 30.50 per barrel.
Yesterday gold trade
- The price of gold in the US trading session yesterday experienced a technical correction down, and partly a little pressure "profit-taking" following recent gains. However, there are still some aversion to risk in the world market which will limit selling pressure on the precious metal.
by Tri Utomo
- February Comex gold was last down $ 7.10 at $ 1,099.10 per ounce. March Comex silver last down $ 0.07 at $ 14.09 per ounce.
- Asian stock markets were lower overnight, following a selloff in the US stock market that brought the major indexes to their lowest in many months. European stock markets are stronger with traders and investors await the ECB's monetary policy. ECB retains monetary policy unchanged on Thursday, which is in accordance with the expected.
- Fall of crude oil prices are at 12-year lows keeps frightening world commodity and financial markets. Nymex oil futures fell below $ 27.00 per barrel. There is increasing concern that many oil industry companies and banks that have loans outstanding against these companies were in great difficulty and could create a failure in obligations that could create a contagious effect.
- Concerns about slowing economic growth in China, the country with the number two in the world economy, also weighed on stock markets around the world. There are also fears of capital flight that massive of China following China's further economic damage.
- In summary, the price of gold suffered moderate sales due to a correction of the previous gains. However, there are still concerns on the risk in the market on the day we yesterday, still will limit selling pressure on gold's safe haven.
Oil prices slipped below $ 27 eroded weakening stock markets and Heartburn Supply
- Crude oil prices fell below $ 27 dollars per barrel in closing (21/01) for the first time since 2003, the slump depressed global stock markets and fears of a glut of crude supplies could last longer.
- Crude oil price West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for February delivery settled at $ 26.55 a barrel, down $ 1.91, or 6.71 percent, up slightly from an intraday low of $ 26.19, the lowest price since May 2003 ,
- While the price of Brent crude oil futures fell 91 cents to $ 27.87 a barrel, up slightly from a decline of $ 27.10.
- Crude oil prices have fallen more than 25 percent so far this year, the steepest such since the financial crisis, a sharp tapping on oil rigs and producer countries alike. Yet they continue to produce more oil to make the market oversupply.
- Data from the American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday showed US crude supplies rose more than expected last week. Crude oil inventories rose 4.6 million barrels in the week to 15 January to 485.2 million, well above analyst expectations for a rise of 2.8 million barrels, the industry group said.
- Venezuela requested an emergency meeting of OPEC to discuss measures to shore up prices, but other delegates rejected the idea.
- A Middle East shipping company became one of the first to resume direct business with international sanctions against Iran after Tehran removed at the weekend, a reminder of how quickly more oil can flow.
- World stock markets slumped to its lowest level since July 2013, and the index fell so far in January has been 9.9 percent, the biggest drop since 2009.
- While the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund warned that the global financial markets seem to be reacting to the decline in oil prices and the risk of a sharp decline in China's economy, energy demand concerns exacerbated already bearish market.
- The International Energy Agency, which advises countries on energy policy, industry, warned Tuesday that the world can be "drowned in oversupply" of oil in 2016, with exports to Iran accumulate excess.
- Commercial crude oil inventories are estimated to have increased by 3 million barrels last week, a Reuters survey taken ahead of weekly inventory data showed on Tuesday.
- Tonight will be released in US crude oil inventory data which is indicated by the results of the consensus will increase.
- Mr Tri Utomo expects the price of crude oil will drop if the data is realized crude oil inventories increased, plus the addition of Iran's exports, increased the global supply glut. Oil prices will move in the range Support $ 26,00- $ 25.50 per barrel, and a resistance range of $ 27,00- $ 27.50 per barrel.
WTI Crude Oil Prices Decline Due to Technical Correction Ignoring Estimated Increase in Demand China
- WTI crude oil futures prices closed down at the close of trading (20/1) due to technical correction, where the sudden turnaround, US oil prices fell 3.3 percent after rising more than 1 percent.
- The price of WTI crude oil futures closed down 96 cents, or 3.26 percent, at $ 28.46 a barrel after earlier returned to discount the price of Brent.
- Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices rebounded from 12-year lows after data showed China's oil demand for the possibility of reaching a record high in 2015, but the recovery is not expected to survive amid warnings that the market will remain oversupply this year.
- Brent crude oil futures prices, the global benchmark, posted strong gains daily in four months, before easing back to trade up 32 cents, or 1.12 percent, at $ 28.88 per barrel.
- Mr Tri Utomo also stated as much encouragement from below $ 28 per barrel for a brief short covering rally after crude oil prices fell more than 20 percent this year, triggering a record volume of short positions in the week to January 12.
- Traders said prices drew support from a strong oil demand in China. Reuters calculations based on government data showed initial oil consumption reached a record 10.32 million barrels per day (bpd), up 2.5 percent from 2014, against the slowdown in economic growth in the second largest country in the world.
- The International Energy Agency, which advises countries on energy policy the industry, said global oil glut expected to last until at least the end of 2016 because of the warm weather season and increased supply.
- "... The oil market faces the prospect of a third consecutive year when the supply will exceed demand by 1 million barrels per day and will be a major strain on the system's ability to absorb efficiently the oil," the IEA said.
Global oil demand fell to a one-year low in the fourth quarter 2015, the IEA said.
- Oversupply worsened by the return of Iranian barrels to the market following the lifting of Western sanctions related to nuclear.
- Iran said it could increase oil production by 500,000 barrels per day and issued an order to start the hike on Monday, but the IEA estimates that more measured rise of about 300,000 barrels per day of additional crude oil at the end of the first quarter of 2016.
- Most analysts expect a full return Iran to the oil market to be relatively slow because of the need to overhaul the infrastructure still needs to be invested, but the country is also estimated to have saved 12-14 million barrels of crude oil and 24 million barrels of condensate to be sold immediately.
- Mr Tri Utomo expects the price of oil is still potentially under pressure with sentiment oversupply of crude oil and exports of Iran. Oil prices will move in the range Support $ 28,00- $ 27.50 per barrel, and a resistance range of $ 29,00- $ 29.50 per barrel.
WTI Crude Oil Prices Decline Due to Technical Correction Ignoring Estimated Increase in Demand China
Like this article ? Come Share :
